White House Week
An 800-Pound Gorilla, With the Name of Vladimir Putin
President Bush's trip to the annual Group of Eight summit of industrialized nations in Germany this week will be fraught with more difficulties than usual. German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants the sessions to focus on global climate change. Bush appeared to swerve from his reluctance on this matter last week when he called for a "long-term global goal" of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But Bush and the Europeans will still have to deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who recently leveled fierce criticism at the United States for its use of military force in Iraq and Afghanistan and for threatening use of force elsewhere. Simon Serfaty, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says Putin will be "the elephant in the room" during the conference. Putin has agreed to meet with Bush at his father's oceanfront estate in Kennebunkport, Maine, July 1.
Immigration Reform and the Blame Game
Leadership officials on the Hill say they are unsure whether the bipartisan immigration reform bill will pass this week. Top Republican aides contend that some Democrats want it defeated so that they can blame Republicans. Meanwhile, a Democratic official voiced concern that angry voters have pushed undecided Republicans into the antireform camp. One Democratic strategist put the chances of passage at 50 percent. A key GOP aide, however, put the chances at 60 to 40, noting that creating the compromise legislation was the tough part. He also gave cosponsor Sen. Edward Kennedy credit for keeping the Democrats steady despite concerns that the bill would punish immigrant families. "The momentum is in the direction of passage," said the aide-but he rapped President Bush for slamming Republican critics of the bill in a speech last week.
Crime Could Be a Sleeper Issue for 2008
One of the biggest stories of the 2008 campaign will be "the return of crime as a top-tier issue," predicts a prominent Democratic pollster. "Right now, we're seeing spikes in the anxiety of voters about crime," as violent felonies increase across the country. Democratic and Republican insiders say voters will demand a get-tough stance that may help the GOP, which has a longtime image as being strong on law and order. This could be a boon to former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, a Republican presidential candidate whose crime-fighting credentials are widely praised. A top FBI official, commenting on the latest data, said that violent crime climbed in 2006, as in 2005, with increases nationally in murders, robberies, and other felonies, the Associated Press reports.
How Tax Cuts Can Beget More Tax Cuts
A respected national economist predicts a balanced budget by 2009, thanks to an increase in tax revenue-a situation he thinks presents candidates with a unique opportunity. Brian Wesbury, chief economist for First Trust Advisors of Illinois, provided statistics that credit the Bush tax cuts with a surge in payroll jobs, a boost in the S&P, and a jump in federal tax receipts. And he said that despite the housing slump, the economy is growing at about a 3 percent annual rate. Based on his research, he suggested that a presidential candidate who calls for greater tax cuts could win the GOP nomination. l
PHOTO OP: 1:23 p.m., May 30, the Rose Garden
President Bush meets a very excited Baron Mosima Loyiso Tantoh in a Rose Garden ceremony in which Bush announced he was asking Congress for $30 billion over five years for AIDS relief. Baron's mother, Kunene Tantoh, coordinates the Mothers-to-Mothers-to-Be organization in South Africa, which counsels pregnant women who are HIV positive.
With Kenneth T. Walsh and Paul Bedard
This story appears in the June 11, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.