Did You Read My Résumé
The second-tier Democratic presidential wannabes look darn good on paper, but that hasn't helped them so far
He's the "résumé" candidate, the one with imposing credentials, an affable campaign style, and a wealth of experience that ranges from delicate diplomacy as United Nations ambassador to budgets and border crises as New Mexico's popular governor.
So why is second-term Gov. Bill Richardson, surely one of the most accomplished Democrats running for the 2008 presidential nomination, struggling to break out from the second tier of those preferred by party voters? That question continued to resonate last week, even as Richardson tried to make a splash by formally announcing his candidacy in Los Angeles. But for many, the event didn't alter the assessment offered by Jay Leno when Richardson appeared in early May on the comedian's late-night show on NBC: "He's the most-qualified presidential candidate you have never heard of."
Experience. It's a predicament that Richardson, 59, also a former congressman and Clinton administration energy secretary who wants to be the first Hispanic president, shares with fellow Democratic candidates Sens. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and Joseph Biden of Delaware. The two experienced Senate hands—Biden was elected in 1972, Dodd in 1980—also have impressive credentials. Both boast years of domestic policy making and expertise in foreign affairs. Biden chairs the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee, and Dodd is its next-highest-ranking Democrat.
But traction has been elusive. In a crowded field, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards are the rock stars, all loaded with the money and national name recognition that have helped them corner the party's base and most of its talented fundraisers. As of March 31, Clinton reported having raised $36 million; Obama, $25.8 million; and Edwards, $14 million. In contrast, Dodd had raised $8.7 million; Richardson, $6.2 million; and Biden, $4 million.
"There is just not a lot of oxygen in the environment for anyone else," says political strategist Edward Reilly of FD, a consulting firm. Reilly's company last week released its latest Diageo/The Hotline poll, a survey of likely Democratic voters nationwide, which showed Richardson preferred by a mere 2 percent, and Biden and Dodd at less than half a percent. "It's very hard to envision a scenario where someone from the second tier could break through," Reilly says.
The three also face a loaded and expensive early primary schedule, so even if they manage some success in January in Iowa and New Hampshire, where the politics truly is hand to hand, there is little time to capitalize on it before Super Tuesday on February 5. That's when more than 20 states, including California and New York, are planning to hold primaries and caucuses.
"The front-loading of big states in February gives a very small window to second-tier candidates to develop relationships with voters," says longtime GOP consultant Ed Rollins, who also notes that the candidates will need a lot of money to run ads. He is among those who believe that Super Tuesday will either determine the nominee or leave the top three to fight it out to the convention in Denver in August.
That scenario gives little hope to Richardson et al. and for some raises larger questions about whether the 2008 primary schedule provides a rational or fair process for choosing a nominee.
But for others, like Democratic consultant Bill Carrick of California, hope springs eternal for the long shots. Says Carrick, "Nobody knows what will happen in February; 1988 is the last time we had a concentration of primaries like this." And the result? Jesse Jackson and Al Gore each won five states, Richard Gephardt only one, and the eventual Democratic nominee, Michael Dukakis, a Northeastern liberal, won three, including Florida. "I just don't believe February 5 is going to be a one-day sale, and that will be it," says Carrick.
Gimmicks. It's not that the résumé candidates haven't already tried a few gimmicks. Dodd announced his candidacy on Don Imus's televised radio program before it was canceled. In Iowa and New Hampshire, Richardson has aired off-beat ads in which he submits to a job interview by a sandwich-chomping boss who tells the candidate he's overqualified. As for Biden, he got most of his attention for a gaffe: He apologized after referring to Obama, the only African-American running for the nomination, as "articulate and bright and clean." The misstep brought back memories of Biden's withdrawal from the 1988 race after it was reported he plagiarized parts of speeches.
Richardson's campaign has recently shown signs of life. Surveys show his support breaking into double digits in Iowa and New Hampshire. "We're now in a tier by ourselves," his campaign manager David Contarino said last week. But Biden and Dodd continue to limp along, barely registering as a blip on voters' radar. In states that will have early contests, surveys show Biden with strongest support at only 4 percent in South Carolina, and Dodd registering little or "no measurable support" in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.
For Dodd, 63, and Biden, 64, this is most likely their last try for the White House. Though presidential candidates never admit positioning for other jobs, Richardson could emerge as a strong contender for vice president, Carrick says. "He's got a great résumé; he's from a swing state and a swing region," he said. "He would look awfully attractive."
But for Richardson, whose 2005 book, Between Worlds, recounts his journey from a boyhood in Mexico to his days with the Clinton administration and beyond, his aim is the presidency. And Biden and Dodd are counting on their campaigning in early primary states to lift them up to something more than a well-qualified asterisk. They have more than seven months before the first vote is cast. And these three still believe anything's possible.
This story appears in the June 4, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.