Thompson's Organization and Speech Could Turn Fuss Into Fizzle
The fuss over Fred Thompson keeps percolating. Many Republicans want the former senator and current TV star to run for president.
But as the existing GOP field prepares to debate next week in South Carolina, fundamental organizational problems as well as a big speech the former Tennessee senator gave in California recently are raising questions about whether he is the conservatives' savior after all.
Since many Republicans are unhappy with the current crop of 10 announced presidential candidates, there's a lot of buzz about whether Thompson will actually enter the race. He is conservative, has a proven record of electability in the key state of Tennessee, and is an effective movie and TV performer. Thompson currently plays District Attorney Arthur Branch on NBC's Law and Order, reminding many of former TV and film star Ronald Reagan. And he is openly considering whether to run.
But his much-analyzed address Friday night at the Lincoln Club in Orange County, Calif., seemed underwhelming. He talked about the need for lower taxes, smaller government, and a strong national defense–surefire conservative talking points–but he didn't convey the excitement that Republicans are looking for. Media reports suggested that the attendees liked his message but were surprised that he didn't have the charisma they had been expecting.
Senior Republican strategists point out that the punditocracy tends to make too much of such insider events.
What's more important, GOP strategists say, is that Thompson would lag far behind in some crucial ways if he did get into the race–in fundraising, setting up a state-by-state organization, and assembling a campaign team. Thompson allies say that's old-fashioned thinking. If he runs, they argue, he will wage a different kind of campaign that uses his appeal as a fresh face and an outsider to propel him into contention with huge amounts of free media coverage.
In fact, Thompson allies say, getting into the race late could be an asset because he would escape the media scrutiny that the other candidates are enduring now.
Meanwhile, the 10 current candidates are preparing for their second debate, scheduled for next Tuesday in Columbia, S.C. (which will hold one of the early GOP primaries next year). Their first debate, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library last Thursday, didn't shake up the race. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is still ahead in national preference polls of Republicans, followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain, Thompson (even though he is only considering the race), and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
"It's still anybody's game," says a former adviser to a Republican president.
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