U.S. Fatality Figures Don't Tell Entire Story
But desperate or not, there is growing concern, too, that the insurgents striking back against U.S. forces are increasingly hitting their mark. Attacks in the International Zone (or Green Zone, as many refer to it) are up: In March, a U.S. soldier and a government contractor were killed by a rocket attack. Just one week earlier, a rocket landed 100 yards from the home of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who lives in the IZ.
On the heels of a suicide bomber attack that struck the Iraqi parliament's cafeteria (also located in the IZ) last month, U.S. military officials have been quietly changing security requirements there. Before, the agreed-upon security protocol meant that members of the parliament and their entourages were not searched, one U.S. military official told U.S. News. Today, however, "a long as they are going into the IZ, there are only nine people–including the prime minister and the president–who don't get searched."
For two days in a row, however, explosions have rocked the 4-square-mile area. "It's clear that there have been increasing targeting attacks against the international zone," Rear Adm. Mark Fox, a senior U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, told reporters, adding that the increasing rockets and mortars represent a "change in tactics" and an attempt to disrupt the government.
The fear is that it may be working. April's death toll was the highest since 112 soldiers and marines died last December (which in turn was the deadliest month for Americans in two years). Roughly half of the deaths occurred in Baghdad, the remainder in the volatile Anbar and Diyala provinces.
Diyala has seen a surge in violence since the Baghdad security plan got underway. Officials attribute this to "squirters," or insurgents leaving Baghdad on the heels of the security crackdown and heading to other parts of the country. Yet among marines (who are responsible for Anbar province), casualties are down. There were 13 Marine deaths in April versus some 29 in December. Gates last month called Anbar a "good news story."
Military officials point out that the buildup of U.S. troops is still underway. Two of the five brigades that make up the "surge" have yet to arrive in Iraq; the last will not be fully settled into Baghdad until July.
In the meantime, while U.S. military officials remind Americans that the deaths are to be expected–and as they try to brace the American public for more to come–the country grows increasingly skeptical of the prospect of winning the war. "You began a troop increase with very bad war popularity and expanded your combat," says Cordesman. "When you get more casualties, inevitably the public-opinion polls become more negative."
And that is proving to be the case: Some 65 percent of Americans, according to an NBC poll last week, believe victory in Iraq is no longer possible.
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