A Golden Opportunity
California's earlier primary may rewrite the rules of the 2008 race. But candidates are struggling to figure out how
SACRAMENTO, CALIF.-The way Fabian Núñez sees it, moving California's presidential primary to February 5 next year from its customary June has already paid off. Testifying on global warming before the U.S. Senate in March, Núñez, the speaker of the State Assembly, was invited to an impromptu half-hour private meeting with Illinois senator and presidential candidate Barack Obama. On another trip to D.C., Núñez was dining with other California lawmakers when Sen. Hillary Clinton and former President Bill Clinton stopped by the restaurant to say hello. They stayed for two hours. Former Sen. John Edwards, another Democratic presidential contender, has telephoned. And when Núñez ended the wooing last week by endorsing Clinton, he got an impressive campaign title: national cochair. "I wasn't looking to play a national role," he says in his office, where the drapes are emerald to match the green in the state flag. "But I'm not going to shy away from it, either."
Neither are Núñez's fellow lawmakers. Republican Assemblywoman Sharon Runner met with presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani at the state GOP convention earlier this year but was troubled by the ex-New York mayor's support for abortion rights. So he called her afterward to say he didn't oppose all abortion restrictions. "The other presidential candidates were not being as aggressive," Runner says, so she endorsed Giuliani.
Money talks. It didn't used to be like this in California. In the past, presidential candidates beelined to the Golden State for one purpose: to fill their campaign coffers. They seldom left donor-rich enclaves like Hollywood-or, more recently, Silicon Valley-to court elected officials or voters. But Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger changed all that in March, signing a bill that shifted California's primary to February 5, immediately after early-caucus and primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire. In the past, presidential nominees had effectively already been chosen by the time of the California primary. Though many other states have moved their primaries up to the same day-including delegate-rich New York and New Jersey-none select as many presidential convention delegates as California. For Democrats, California picks 440 delegates, more than twice as many as the first four caucus and primary states combined.
But as the opportunity for picking up such hefty support is focusing presidential campaigns on California for the first time in decades, the state's peculiarities also inject a potent shot of uncertainty into the race. With more than a dozen television markets and a $3 million-a-week price tag for even a light statewide ad buy, none of the candidates may be able to afford a serious TV presence, the mainstay of political campaigns. And since the GOP primary is structured as individual winner-take-all contests in each of the state's 53 congressional districts, Republican candidates may have to pick and choose which districts to compete in and which to cede. On top of those challenges, investing much in California may turn out to be a mistake if both parties have front-runners with strong momentum out of earlier states. But San Francisco-based Democratic consultant Chris Lehane says candidates are preparing for California to matter a whole lot in '08. "If the picture is muddled or an insurgent candidate injects themselves into the mix after Iowa and New Hampshire, California will play a huge role," says Lehane. "The top-tier campaigns are recognizing they need a serious California strategy."
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