Reinventing John McCain
The senator is trying to jump-start a staggering campaign
Can John McCain become the new "Comeback Kid"? At 70 years old, he seems an unlikely candidate for the moniker, which Bill Clinton famously gave himself in the 1992 campaign. But McCain and his strategists argue that the old soldier is again on the march and will gradually surge back into serious contention for the Republican presidential nomination.
Their battle plan is in place. First came McCain's long-awaited speech on Iraq last week, in which he argued that the war must be won and that U.S. troops are making more progress than Americans realize. The intended message was clear-that the former POW is a strong leader who doesn't sway with the polls. This week, he gives a speech on the economy-calling for tax cuts and spending restraint-to court fiscal conservatives. On April 23, in another major address, McCain will call for an improved energy policy emphasizing market-based solutions. All that's a prelude to a formal announcement of his candidacy April 25 in New Hampshire, followed by a campaign stop April 26 in South Carolina, where he will participate in the first GOP presidential debate. Then it's on to Iowa April 27 and Arizona April 28.
"He will put down issue markers for his vision, his solutions to the key problems of the country, and talk about the main themes of his campaign," says Brian Jones, McCain's communications director.
And none too soon. McCain has faded dramatically from his position as Republican front-runner a year ago. He finished last in fundraising among the top six presidential contenders of the major parties; among Republicans, he placed third, collecting $12.5 million, compared with Mitt Romney's $21 million and Rudy Giuliani's $15 million. The numbers caused McCain to reshuffle his fundraising operation to bring in more cash and limit spending. His recent trip to Baghdad became an embarrassment when he claimed that parts of the city were safe to stroll in. He was forced to admit he "misspoke" after TV cameras showed that during his walkabout he was protected by heavily armed U.S. soldiers and helicopter gunships hovering overhead.
Perhaps most ominous, he has been dropping in the polls. The latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey found him in third place, with only 12 percent of Republican support. Giuliani had 29 percent; former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee, who is considering a White House run, had 15 percent; and Romney had 8 percent. Many conservatives don't trust McCain on issues like tax cuts, abortion, and gay rights. He is no longer a fresh face. And to many, he no longer stands for much of anything beyond winning in Iraq.
Biography. But McCain strategists argue that he is still a strong candidate-articulate, principled, and admired. He certainly has the most compelling biography of anyone in the race as a former Vietnam prisoner of war who demonstrated enormous courage in captivity. McCain also is building an impressive national organization-announcing endorsements from Republican officials nearly every day-that appears to be far more extensive than his GOP rivals'.
But as he reintroduces himself to the public, McCain has yet to overcome the huge anchor around his neck represented by his support for the unpopular Iraq war. To turn things around, he tried to make a moral and practical case in that long-awaited speech at Virginia Military Institute in Lexington last week. "The judgment of history should be the approval we seek," he said, "not the temporary favor of the latest public opinion poll." He argued that victory would prevent Iraq from becoming more of a breeding ground for terrorists. McCain has for years criticized what he calls the mismanagement of the war and the administration's failure to send in enough troops. But now, he says, President Bush has finally come around to the McCain way of thinking, and this is no time to give up.
The Arizona senator also showed his partisan side. "Democrats, who deny our soldiers the means to prevent an American defeat, have chosen another road," he declared, referring to congressional efforts to impose a timetable on U.S. participation in the war. "It may appear to be the easier course of action, but it is a much more reckless one." Democrats countered that the conflict is going badly, that American troops are stuck in the middle of a civil war, and that McCain is deluded in his assessments of progress.
Beyond the posturing, the exchange showed how much difficulty McCain will have in courting Democrats and independents this time around. They loved him in the New Hampshire primary in 2000, powering his upset victory over George W. Bush. But Bush prevailed in the South Carolina primary with a series of harsh attacks on McCain and eventually won the nomination as the Establishment favorite. That's the role McCain is now trying to claim. But Democratic and independent voters have turned against both the war and McCain as one of its main defenders.
What many of McCain's critics are missing, however, is that his Iraq speech was aimed not at Democrats or independents but at Republican voters who will, after all, decide their party's nomination. McCain and his strategists know that 70 percent of GOP voters still support the war, and most back McCain's goal of victory. Among those voters, McCain's support is a plus that demonstrates his resolve and strength of character. At least that's what the McCain forces are hoping.
McCain has another agenda. In recent days, he has increased his sniping at the mainstream media for under-reporting good news from Iraq (a claim that seemed undercut last week when a suicide bomber killed eight people and wounded 30 in the heavily guarded Iraqi parliament building). This bash-the-media tactic has been used effectively for six years by the Bush White House to rally conservatives who believe the mainstream media are too liberal and biased against the GOP. Adopting that strategy represents a big risk for McCain, who might alienate the journalists who gave him such a boost in 2000. But it might also increase his support among conservatives who up to now have considered him too cozy with the press.
Will all this work? With the first caucuses and primaries nine months away, no one is close to locking up the Republican nomination, and plenty of time for a McCain surge. But he'd better get moving if he wants to be 2008's comeback kid.
This story appears in the April 23, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.