McCain to Stress Winnability of War
John McCain hopes to re-establish momentum for his presidential campaign with a much-anticipated speech on Iraq on Wednesday.
In a preview for U.S. News, McCain advisers said the address at the Virginia Military Institute in Lexington will emphasize that the Iraq war is winnable, that slow but steady progress is being made, and that defeat would be "catastrophic" for the United States and the Middle East. A loss, McCain will argue, would give terrorists a full-time breeding ground for more attacks on the United States and set back the causes of peace and democracy in the region.
"It will be a chance for him in a very specific setting to talk about the war and lay down some markers," says a senior McCain strategist. "This is an ongoing struggle for the soul of the Muslim world. It may not have started out that way, but that's the way it is now."
McCain has endured several setbacks in recent weeks. He finished dead last among the top six presidential contenders of the major parties in raising money, collecting $12.5 million in the first quarter of 2007. His recent trip to Baghdad became an embarrassment when he claimed that parts of the city were safe to stroll around in. McCain later said he "misspoke" after TV cameras showed that during his walkabout he was surrounded by heavily armed U.S. soldiers and protected by helicopter gunships hovering overhead. And he has been dropping in the national polls. Gallup's latest survey found that only 16 percent of Republicans support him for the GOP nomination, far behind former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's 38 percent.
McCain will have great difficulty making his case on Iraq to Democrats and independents, who admired him for his maverick run for the White House in 2000 but over the past year have turned against both the war and him. But what many of McCain's critics are missing is that his Iraq speech won't be aimed mostly at the Democrats or the independents but at Republican voters who will, after all, be the ones who decide their party's nomination next year. And McCain and his strategists know that most of those GOP voters still support the war and McCain's goal of victory–which is also the policy of President Bush.
Among those voters, McCain's principled support for the war is a plus that demonstrates his resolve and strength of character. At least that's what the McCain forces are betting on as they struggle to pull him out of the doldrums.
McCain has another agenda. In recent days, he has been increasing his criticism of the mainstream media for under-reporting the good news from Iraq and focusing on the negative. This is a tried-and-true tactic of the Bush White House, and it is effective in rallying the conservative base that believes the media are too liberal and biased against the GOP. For McCain, once the darling of the media, to do this is a big departure, but it might increase his support among conservatives who have considered him too cozy with the press.
McCain will continue to reintroduce himself to the country with a speech on economic issues April 16 and another address April 23 on domestic concerns, probably on energy. All this is designed to lead up to his formal announcement of candidacy April 25 in New Hampshire, followed by campaign stops in South Carolina April 26, in Iowa April 27, and in Arizona April 28.
Will it work? There is plenty of time left, and no one is even close to locking up the GOP nomination. Just about anything is possible.
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