Remaking the Calendar
A host of early primaries may scramble the presidential race
Moving up. It's all the rage. Tired of letting Iowa and New Hampshire effectively choose the presidential nominees, California and Arkansas have moved their 2008 primaries forward. New York is poised to do the same. In fact, more than 20 states are either staging their 2008 presidential primaries or caucuses on February 5 (or even before) or seriously considering it. The impact on the White House race is likely to be dramatic. But two different schools of thought are emerging on what that impact will be.
One school holds that the earliest states—Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and, for the Democrats, Nevada, all in January—now matter more than ever, since only three weeks separate the Iowa caucuses from the February 5 contests, affording little time to recover from weak finishes. According to this theory, the financial challenge of competing in so many February 5 states puts an even higher premium on early momentum. The alternate argument says the February 5 primaries diminish the weight of the earlier contests, allowing well-financed candidates to compete in a dozen or more states and compensate for weaker-than-expected early finishes.
Chess. Campaigns are just beginning to adjust. The primaries "used to be a game of checkers," says Kevin Madden, spokesman for GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney. "Now we have a game of three-dimensional chess—so many dynamics ... and still a lot of unknowns."
Five states have moved up existing primaries or caucuses or have introduced new ones on February 5 or earlier, joining four that already held primaries hard on the heels of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. An additional 16 are weighing moves. More than 30 states could hold primaries or caucuses by February's end, up from 19 in 2004.
Perhaps no one sees as much advantage in the February 5 states as GOP contender Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor whose liberal social views could spell trouble in Iowa and South Carolina. His team believes it can sustain early losses but win the nomination by finishing strong on February 5 in states like liberal California and, probably, New York.
But Arizona Sen. John McCain believes the front-loaded calendar makes the early states more important than ever. "Is your message going to be that even though we lost the first three primary states, we are still viable?" asks a McCain aide of the Giuliani strategy. Romney's campaign believes he needs strong early finishes to be considered viable but has hired staff in Florida and Michigan, which are likely to move up their primaries.
Among Democrats, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's fundraising juggernaut is positioning her to compete in many February 5 states. But former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is focusing all but exclusively on the early contests. The campaign of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, meanwhile, is still studying the calendar. "We're not obsessing over February 5," says an Obama aide. At least for now.
This story appears in the April 9, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.
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