War of Words
Iranian weapons are killing U.S. troops. But when officials blamed Iran's leaders, they fell into a credibility gap
Messages. Ultimately, the briefing sent two strong signals: First, ratcheting up rhetoric against Iran sends a clear message to Iraq's Shiite prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki: Specifically, says a senior Pentagon official, "Don't take support from Iran." The other message is for Iran: Stop your nuclear program "or we'll find an excuse to make you stop"-though the official dismisses war talk.
Despite the new Iran flap, a recent National Intelligence Estimate reaffirmed that it is not "a major driver of violence" in Iraq. Deaths resulting from EFPs account for fewer than 6 percent of all American military fatalities in Iraq (170 versus more than 3,000). The Sunni insurgency and al Qaeda in Iraq account for most of the American death toll. "Though you don't want to minimize 170 deaths, that's not a heck of a lot over four years," says a former military official who served in Iraq. "Which tells me that EFPs aren't used often by the Shia militia-except on those times when they think Americans are getting too close to someone important."
Military analysts, who believe that most of the EFPs are going to the Mahdi Army led by radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al Sadr, are warily tracking his movements. Officials report that Sadr is now in Iran-a development many view with concern. "It could signal several things-the worst one being that there has really been a fracture of the loose command and control of the Mahdi Army," says the former military official. "That the Mahdi Army is breaking apart and we'll have a lot more independent actors out there." In that case, U.S. forces could be facing an enemy even more difficult to track.
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