War of Words
Iranian weapons are killing U.S. troops. But when officials blamed Iran's leaders, they fell into a credibility gap
Evidence. Not that all the allegations the administration trotted out last week were questionable. Military and intelligence analysts are in widespread agreement that a key component in EFPs makes it clear that they are coming from Iran. "It's not the sort of thing that is just lying around in mass quantities" in Iraq's inadequately secured ammunition supply points, says one U.S. official in Iraq who tracks improvised explosive devices. "When you have something that can only be made in a few locations and that requires difficult-to-come-by raw materials, it's not that hard to monitor potential local production." Some of the devices found last month were produced as recently as last year.
But these components-about the size of a BlackBerry-are easy to smuggle into the country. And so the evidence about who, exactly, is providing these weapons is less clear. U.S. officials have suggested in several briefings that the EFPs were supplied to the Shiite militias by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's al-Quds Brigade, the elite foreign arm of the Iranian security services. "I think that's still speculative," says a senior military official. "I'm sure it's a combination of al-Quds and a few guys just trying to make a buck."
U.S. intelligence agencies are, largely, sticking by the original allegations that Iranian leaders are complicit. "Based on our understanding of the Iranian system and the history of IRGC operations, the [intelligence community] assesses that activity this extensive on the part of the Quds force would not be conducted without approval from top leaders in Iran," says a senior intelligence official. A senior military official tells U.S. News that "assess" is the key word: "Assessment is a conclusion one can arrive at after looking at information, but it may not cross the threshold of what you know." Several intelligence sources confirm that the connection to top officials in Tehran is based on good, but largely circumstantial, evidence.
There is little doubt among military officials that the Quds force has been an active presence in Iraq, particularly around the southern oil city of Basra, but elsewhere as well. When U.S. forces grabbed five Iranians with alleged ties to the Revolutionary Guard in the northern Iraqi city of Irbil last month, the roundup reportedly included the third-ranking officer in the Quds force.
But the extent of control that the Iranian government has over the force remains a matter of some dispute. "Al-Quds pretty much does what it wants to do when it wants to do it, and at times it can ride off the reservation," says one former U.S. military official with knowledge of the group. "It's one of those things where it's easier for them to beg forgiveness than to ask permission."
Bush argued last week that proving any direct link between the Iranian government and the EFPs being used against American soldiers in Iraq is less important than the mere fact that it's happening at all. "What's worse," asked Bush, "that the government knew or that the government didn't know?"
But there are internal debates within the administration about the medium- and long-term impacts of going public now (particularly since EFPs first turned up in Iraq in 2004). Does threatening Iran make the regime more inclined to accelerate its current nuclear efforts, for example, or encourage it to be more cautious? Some considered it a simple warning gone awry. "I took the briefing as a shot across the bow," says Jeffrey White, a Middle East expert formerly at the Defense Intelligence Agency. "I think the intent was not to make it a huge deal."
advertisement
