The Evolution of John Edwards
The smiling centrist of 2004 is now a growling populist. Does he know what Democrats want?
John Edwards flashed his trademark megawatt smile when asked if he could get his message across even though he lags behind Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in national polls. Surveying the seven TV cameras and two dozen reporters and photographers at his press conference in Hanover, N.H., Edwards drawled, "I think if you look around this room, you'll see it's relatively easy for me to be heard."
That much is true. The Democratic vice presidential candidate from 2004 is well known in political circles and has the kind of charisma that attracts news coverage-and crowds-wherever he goes. The problem is whether his new message of dramatic change will catch on, and that will depend on whether fellow Democrats are in a take-no-prisoners mood when the presidential primaries and caucuses start next January. Certainly, the ongoing debate in Congress over the Iraq war adds resonance to Edwards's outrage about the conflict and, more broadly, fuels his newfound frustration with the status quo. "I am the candidate of big, fundamental change," he told U.S. News.
Obviously, Edwards himself has changed considerably from the happy-face centrist who refrained from attack politics in '04. His appeal today is based in large part on his sharp-edged antiwar stand, which is more urgent and emotional than the positions of Senators Clinton and Obama. Edwards, reflecting the growing impatience of many rank-and-file Democrats nationwide, derides the nonbinding resolution now before Congress, which opposes President Bush's "surge" of 21,500 additional troops into Iraq. "Nonbinding resolutions don't stop the escalation of this war," Edwards told U.S. News. "It's time for Congress to use its power [over spending] to stop the escalation of this war and to keep this president from making another huge ... ego-driven mistake." Edwards favors withdrawing 40,000 to 50,000 U.S. troops immediately to pressure the Iraqis to take charge of their own security and removing all U.S. combat troops within 12 to 18 months. Last week, Edwards added another stipulation: capping funds at enough for 100,000 troops, to "mandate a withdrawal" of thousands of troops in excess of that number.
Edwards, a youthful-looking 53, explains his new insurgent's message in terms of what he has learned as a private citizen these past two years. After unsuccessfully seeking the Democratic presidential nomination and then serving as John Kerry's vice presidential running mate in the party's loss to George Bush and Dick Cheney, he moved back home to North Carolina (which he represented in the Senate for six years) and spent his time ruminating about issues, traveling the world, and working with charities and other volunteer groups to fight poverty. All this, he says, gave him a new sense of urgency about dealing with America's problems, and he is staking out the left side of the Democratic playing field as an aggressive Washington outsider.
Truth-telling. Opposition to the Iraq war forms the centerpiece of his campaign. Edwards says Bush and his policymakers misled the country about whether Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, mismanaged the Iraq war, and "just don't tell the truth" about how badly things are going. Edwards admits he made a mistake in voting for the war in 2002, and he has called on Clinton to also admit her error. (She refuses, arguing that the war was Bush's mistake, not hers. Obama wasn't in the Senate in '02, but he opposed the war as a state legislator in Illinois.)
"Edwards has a clarity of message that the other candidates don't have," says a former adviser to President Bill Clinton. Adds a strategist for another Democratic hopeful in '08: "Because he's not a front-runner, he's willing to take more risks. Edwards is being more strident as he moves to the left. His problem is that people aren't looking for the loudest voice or the most strident voice but someone who will make things work."
Yet Edwards is pressing ahead. He's increasingly aggressive in attacking Bush's record and, in some cases, offering bold policy prescriptions (interview, Page 36). He told U.S. News that Bush's economic policies "are not working. ... The positive fruits of growth are not being shared by the American people at large. They're only being shared by large corporations and, if I can put this in simplest terms, those with capital and a high level of education." He favors increasing taxes on the wealthiest Americans, and overhauling "our dysfunctional healthcare system, which puts so much pressure on the middle class and working poor in this country."
His left-of-center strategy has started to cause a few problems. Edwards's attempt to woo liberals via the Internet, for example, sparked fierce criticism from Roman Catholic activists when he hired liberal bloggers Amanda Marcotte and Melissa McEwan for his campaign, even though they had written vulgar diatribes against conservative Catholics. Edwards refused to fire them, although he expressed disagreement with their more extreme views. Marcotte and McEwan ended up resigning anyway.
In the past, insurgent candidates like Edwards have tended to flash and fade in Democratic primaries-think Howard Dean in 2004, Bill Bradley in 2000, Paul Tsongas in 1992, and Gary Hart in 1984. But there have been a few successes-Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George McGovern in 1972.
Directions. This cycle, Edwards hopes to ride a wave of liberal anger and generalized dissatisfaction. Seven out of 10 Americans, after all, say the country is going in the wrong direction. He and his strategists believe it's vital to win at least three of the first four presidential tests in January 2008-especially the Iowa caucuses, which are first on the nominating calendar, and the opening primary in New Hampshire. Edwards is a frequent visitor to Iowa, where he has a strong organization and leads in some polls or is among the front-runners, with Clinton. He is counting on the crossover votes of independents in New Hampshire for a win there. He also is popular with the large organized labor bloc in Nevada, which holds a caucus between those two major states. After these three contests comes the primary in South Carolina, where Edwards was born; he won there in 2004. Edwards claims he would be the most electable candidate in the general election and says he can raise $45 million to $50 million this year, probably the minimum needed for a serious campaign. Last week, he gave a couple of speeches on healthcare but spent most of his time at private fundraisers in California, Florida, Nevada, and Oklahoma.
Edwards has several other things going for him. He should do well in debates, with his trial lawyer's skill at making arguments and persuading jurors. His youth, good looks, and vigor raise comparisons with John F. Kennedy, one of his party's icons. His personal story as the son of a millworker who rose from humble beginnings to success in the law field remains appealing (though the fact that he lives in a multimillion-dollar house in North Carolina may undercut his populist appeal somewhat). His wife Elizabeth's successful struggle with breast cancer gave him and his family firsthand experience with the kinds of everyday crises that many Americans also have endured. He feels liberated from the normal cautious mind-set of Washington politicians.
Evolution. That was clear when Edwards spoke to a packed town hall meeting at Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H., on January 31. He rolled up the sleeves of his dark-blue button-down shirt and roamed the crowd like a junior professor trying to bond with his students. The candidate drew cheers when he told the crowd it was time for bold action. "I, like all of you, have evolved," he declared. "It is not enough to do small things. Baby steps and incremental change are not enough. We need transformational change." That is the underlying message in the reinvention of John Edwards.
This story appears in the February 26, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.