Trying to Manage Obama's Message
His story means different things to different people
The 2008 election could well make history in a new and special way. Americans could elect the first female president in Hillary Rodham Clinton. They could choose the first Mormon president in Mitt Romney, or the oldest president in John McCain. Or they could elect the first African-American president in Barack Obama. Given America's bitter heritage of slavery, segregation, and discrimination, Obama's election could represent the most groundbreaking possibility of all.
Certainly he has generated more excitement than any other candidate. And as he accelerates his campaign this week, the buzz will get louder. "Is he just a streak across the sky or something more?' asks a strategist for one Republican presidential hopeful. "He is developing a cult of personality, but what is his real constituency?" Good question-and one that a growing number of political professionals and everyday voters are asking as well.
Obama already has demonstrated strong appeal to white voters. He comes in second to Senator Clinton in national polls of preferences for the Democratic nomination. And he impresses many as a talented newcomer who, because of his multicultural background, could conceivably redefine America's debate on race-away from a focus on the consequences of slavery toward an emphasis on the benefits of diversity. "It's a measure of our progress that a woman and a Mormon and an African-American can compete for this office that has always been the province of men and white people," asserts David Axelrod, one of Obama's advisers. But being an African-American, says Axelrod, is only part of Obama's story. "His hallmark in his years in politics," notes Axelrod, "has been bringing people together." In a recent interview with U.S. News, Obama said Americans are looking for a "change in tone and a return to some notion of the common good and some sense of cooperation, of pragmatism over ideology."
Cornell Belcher, Obama's pollster-and an African-American himself-says the Illinois senator represents a fulfillment of the civil rights movement: a black man who overcame prejudice, worked hard, and excelled. "It's not a wonderful black story; it's a great American story," Belcher told U.S. News.
But questions remain about how Obama will fare in the African-American community, where some, such as columnist Stanley Crouch and author Debra Dickerson, don't think Obama has shared enough of the black experience to truly bond with the community. Those who disagree cite the controversial remarks of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, another presidential candidate, who called Obama "the first mainstream African-American [candidate] who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy" and then apologized for being insensitive. Obama supporters contend that Biden's remarks show Obama can never escape his black heritage, and they say that fact should create sympathy and support for him among skeptical African-American leaders.
Color war. "He's not 'black enough'?" asks Democratic pollster Geoff Garin. "It's ridiculous. Obama is going to do very well with African-American voters. ... This will be the first real opportunity to elect a person of color," and that prospect will be compelling, says Garin. "People are looking for the things that unite us, not separate us. ... He is able to put his finger on things we have in common."
One particular challenge for Obama, a former state senator, community organizer, and law professor in Chicago, is overcoming Hillary Clinton's potential strength in the black community. Terry McAuliffe, Senator Clinton's campaign chairman, told U.S. News that black voters know that Clinton will represent their interests, as proved by her husband's policies while he was president. "African-Americans look fondly on the Clinton years," McAuliffe says. A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 60 percent of black voters support Senator Clinton and 20 percent back Senator Obama. Adds another former strategist for President Clinton: "Culturally, Barack Obama is more an ethnic American rather than an African-American."
But that melting-pot past could broaden Obama's appeal. He is the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas, born in Hawaii and raised there by his mother and white maternal grandparents. He also spent part of his youth in Indonesia with his mother and Indonesian stepfather. "I've never had the option of restricting my loyalties on the basis of race, or measuring my worth on the basis of tribe," Obama wrote in his book, The Audacity of Hope.
His unusual background seems to have particular appeal to younger voters, who are drawn to his multicultural past, his energy, his desire for civility, and his charisma, according to Democratic and Republican pollsters. And bringing young voters to the polls will be a key part of Obama's strategy for the early contests in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Obama could also cut into support for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who is campaigning as a populist and advocate for the poor and minorities.
Popularity. Obama's nonconfrontational, "post racial" approach is similar to that of former Secretary of State Colin Powell and current Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, African-Americans who moved beyond the traditional image of blacks in public life, embodied by civil rights leaders such as Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. Polls indicate Rice and Powell are two of history's most popular African-Americans. "Anybody who thinks Barack Obama will get blown away like a paper figurine is sadly mistaken," says historian Doug Brinkley. Obama reminds Brinkley of John F. Kennedy, another 40-something senator who struck party graybeards as too young and inexperienced for a presidential campaign. But voters liked his vigor and sense of promise, and of course he won the White House. Obama is "the first serious post-civil-rights African-American presidential candidate," Brinkley told U.S. News, and he shares a bond with millions of ambitious immigrants.
Adds Republican pollster Frank Luntz: "You see in him what you want to see. He is aspirational. Every mother looks at him and says, 'That's what I want for my son or daughter.'"
Beyond the imagery lurks an emerging issue that could damage Obama's candidacy-the question of whether the young senator, who lacks foreign-policy experience, is tough enough to be commander in chief or even survive the rough-and-tumble of the campaign. This concern is intensified by Obama's declared intention to reject attack politics. But Axelrod says, "You can be tough without being gratuitous. ... People want someone to take us past the stalemate and gridlock we find ourselves in." Obama also notes that he cut his political teeth in Chicago. "Chicago is considered a tough political town," he told U.S. News, "and I succeeded."
Obama admits he needs to be more specific about many issues. But as he recently told the Democratic National Committee: "We've had lots of plans, Democrats. What we've had is a shortage of hope. And over the next year, over the next two years, that will be my call to you." Is a message of hope enough to win the White House? Maybe. Maybe not. But it's an audacious thought.
This story appears in the February 19, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.