What is Plan C?
Bush may have a few months to test his new Iraq strategy, but he'll need a fallback-and the options are scary
5. CONTAINMENT
The slide to all-out civil war is inevitable; pull U.S. forces out of Baghdad and other contested areas, and create safe zones inside Iraq's borders for refugees
For Washington, this route is tantamount to conceding complete defeat in Iraq. "The only thing standing between Iraq and a descent into Lebanon- or Bosnia-style maelstrom is 140,000 American troops, and even they are merely slowing the fall at this point," concluded a recent report issued by the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. "If we cannot prevent such a full-scale civil war, then containment, as awful as it threatens to be, might still prove to be our least bad option."
Based on a grim application of realpolitik, containment would largely abandon the center of Iraq to anarchy, focusing instead on preventing a larger regional conflict. The level of Iraqi casualties could be staggering. "At best, if everything worked out, we would be leaving the Iraqis to a horrible fate," admits Pollack, who coauthored the Saban Center report. Yet he says that it would still require as many as 70,000 U.S. troops to maintain a series of "catch-basins" around Iraq to safeguard and disarm refugees-and deter foreign intervention. It could prove very difficult for U.S. troops to stand by while Baghdad descends into all-out chaos. "It's a solution of last resort," says Marina Ottaway of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Further, the plan could enable al Qaeda to establish a more permanent presence, even training camps, in western Iraq. It could also appear to invite Iran's intervention because it would most likely be too difficult to manage camps along the Iranian border.
Concerted diplomacy may not deter Iran's intervention, but U.S. diplomatic efforts with Tehran did ease tensions in Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban. "You could make the case that we're doing Iran's work for them by getting rid of Saddam and turning it inside out with a Shia government being in place when the dust settled," says Hoar. "We have common interests in a stable Iraq." But in recent weeks, the Bush administration has stepped up accusations against Iran, making the prospect of dialogue even more remote.
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