What is Plan C?
Bush may have a few months to test his new Iraq strategy, but he'll need a fallback-and the options are scary
Iraq may eventually be headed toward some form of partition anyway, but having the United States impose a division could be disastrous. "When the partition becomes our responsibility, we have to make the decisions of who gets to keep their homes and who doesn't," says Pollack. "At the end of the day, we will have to be present to police the demarcation line." Eaton agrees that Iraqi leaders would first have to reach a political compromise on where the boundaries would be, including places like Kirkuk. "Until that Iraqi government says we're going to pursue a partition," he says, "then there's really nothing we can do."
3. STRONGMAN
Abandon the experiment with democracy; install a new regime that can move decisively against insurgents and militias, including Sadr
The goal of installing a model democracy in Iraq might never have been realistic, but it would be very difficult to abandon. The Bush administration worked hard to push out former Prime Minister Ibrahim Jafari. Unfortunately, his successor, Nouri al-Maliki, has proved nearly as incapable of asserting himself on any significant security, political, or economic issues. In recent days, Maliki has taken tentative steps against Sadr, a key backer, but may not follow through.
If Iraq's current political leaders are incapable of reaching the compromises needed for political reconciliation, it's not clear who could force the changes. For one thing, Washington would have to choose either a Sunni or a Shiite to put in charge. The Shiites won a majority in the last election, but the traditional Sunni leaders still feel entitled to a large share of the power. "If the strongman is a Shia, then the Sunnis will never come to heel for that, and neither will the Kurds," says Eaton. "I just don't see that one playing out without an extraordinary brutality as we watch the guy bring the country to heel."
4. ATTACK IRAN
Tehran is actively stoking violence in Iraq; provoke a confrontation; use airstrikes to restrain Iran
With a second aircraft carrier battle group headed to the Persian Gulf, Patriot missile batteries in Kuwait and Qatar, and a Navy admiral taking over U.S. Central Command, many are concerned that the Bush administration is gearing up for an air war (perhaps even as an excuse to take out Iran's nuclear program). In recent weeks, U.S. officials have stepped up their rhetoric accusing Iran of training and supplying weapons to Shiite militias. Says Hoar: "I think we're setting ourselves up for a battle with the Iranians," a charge Gates denies. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini last week threatened to retaliate against any U.S. strike by attacking American interests worldwide.
But U.S. intelligence agencies were very clear in the recent NIE: Iran might support the militias, but if Iranian involvement ended tomorrow, violence in Iraq would not decrease appreciably. In fact, attacking Iran could spur them to create even more trouble in Iraq. And it would almost certainly backfire inside Iran. While a number of military analysts favor playing a strong hand to unsettle the Iranians, "the idea of actually following through and bombing the country" would reverse the momentum of student movements that have been agitating against Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, says Eaton. "The Persians are very nationalistic. If they take an attack, any opportunity to create change from within is gone."
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