What is Plan C?
Bush may have a few months to test his new Iraq strategy, but he'll need a fallback-and the options are scary
Amid the congressional grandstanding last week over U.S. policy in Iraq, House Minority Leader John Boehner tried to channel President Bush and cast the choice as a simple one. "If you're not for victory in Iraq," the Ohio Republican said, "you're for failure."
If only it were that simple.
What kind of "victory," realistically, is achievable at this point? Certainly not a model democracy. Probably not even a particularly stable government, but perhaps one that would present some semblance of central authority and deny al Qaeda a new home for its training camps. What would failure be? These days, most Americans would probably settle for anything less than an all-out civil or regional war-as long as it brings the troops home. More voices are arguing that maybe the goal should simply be getting U.S. troops out of Iraq, whatever the consequences.
For now, Democrats and Republicans in Congress are tying themselves in knots trying to respond to the new strategy President Bush laid out last month for Iraq-his Plan B. The president's critics have focused on his call for a so-called surge of 21,500 U.S. troops, but Plan B is a broader shift that makes American soldiers responsible (for the first time) for keeping the Iraqi people safe. The new security plan is still taking shape, with additional U.S. troops moving into Baghdad. But the past two weeks have been demoralizing, with a handful of U.S. helicopters shot down and Baghdad convulsed by its own surge of suicide bombings and sectarian killings.
Even U.S. officials admit privately that Plan B is a long shot, alarmingly dependent on the performance of an Iraqi government that has yet to demonstrate much by way of resolve. Anthony Cordesman, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, puts the odds of success at "probably less than 1 in 4." U.S. intelligence agencies are downright skeptical. The newly issued National Intelligence Estimate says that both Iraqi leaders and security forces will be "hard pressed" to move forward in the next 18 months.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates told a Senate panel last week that he is "planning for success" but conceded that he has ordered Pentagon officials to look at fallbacks. "I would be irresponsible," he said, "if I weren't thinking about what the alternatives might be." In public, U.S. officials are loath to discuss a possible "Plan C," but any significant shift would require months of preparation.
Unfortunately, the options for Plan C range from ugly to abhorrent-underscoring exactly how much is riding on Bush's Plan B. A look at five of the most-discussed options for Plan C, and their shortcomings:
1. WITHDRAWAL
Announce a date for the withdrawal of U.S. troops; accelerate training of Iraqi security forces; intensify diplomatic efforts to keep Iraq's neighbors from intervening
With violence spiraling and the Iraqi government so far unable to reverse the trend, a new report by the Council on Foreign Relations suggests that the situation may simply be irretrievable and U.S. forces will have to pull out from an unstable Iraq sooner or later. "It is now just a matter of time," the report concludes. "Better to withdraw as a coherent ... act than withdraw later in a hectic response to public opposition ... or a series of unexpectedly sharp reverses on the ground in Iraq."
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