4th and Long
President Bush's Commitment of more troops to Iraq isn't just unpopular-it's a last-ditch gamble against tough odds
For all the carping, the president's critics have few of their own plans to offer. While some suggest a phased withdrawal, few can counter Bush's nightmare scenario of a hasty U.S. departure resulting in the complete collapse of the Iraqi government and "mass killings on an unimaginable scale." Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden has offered a plan to partition Iraq along sectarian lines, but many experts say the country is simply too much of a patchwork quilt for such a division. "Iraq is like a bad marriage-it's violent, but nobody is openly talking about divorce," says Vali Nasr, an expert on Iraq at the Naval Postgraduate School. "The United States cannot come in and pre-emptively divide a big Arab state." In another six months, warring Iraqis may well have achieved that objective themselves.
How the Game Plan Changed
ASSUMPTIONS
Before: Political progress will help defuse the insurgency and dampen levels of violence.
Now: While political progress, economic gains, and security are intertwined, political and economic progress are unlikely without a basic level of security.
Before: A majority of Iraqis will support the coalition and Iraqi efforts to build a democratic state.
Now: Iraqis are increasingly disillusioned with coalition efforts.
Before: Iraqi security forces are gaining in strength and ability to handle Iraq's security challenges.
Now: Many elements of the Iraqi security forces are in the lead but are not yet ready to handle security challenges independently.
Before: Dialogue with insurgent groups will help reduce violence.
Now: Dialogue with insurgents has not improved security and may not produce strategic gains in the current context.
Before: A majority of Iraqis and Iraqi leaders see their interests as best advanced by a unified Iraq.
Now: Many Iraqis are also advancing sectarian agendas.
OPERATIONAL SHIFTS
Before: The primary security focus was on transferring responsibility to Iraqis, with less focus on population security.
Now: The primary focus is on helping the Iraqi police and Army provide population security.
Before: Restrictive rules of engagement hindered execution of Baghdad security plan (preventing U.S. forces from going into Shiite strongholds).
Now: Iraqi leaders have committed to permissive rules of engagement (coalition forces may now go into Sadr City).
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