The New Math On Crime
Murder is up, but alarms about a new surge in violence seem overstated-so far
That explanation doesn't convince Philip Cook, an economist and professor at Duke University who has written on crime numbers. He disputes the grim portrayal of the 2006 economy and also argues that the link between the economy and murder levels is unproven. Recall the '60s, Cook says, when the economy and murder numbers grew hand in hand.
Police departments have widely cited armed young people as the cause of their recent violence woes, and some speculate that the rise in murders is simply the result of a larger segment of the population entering the prime years for committing crime-generally thought to be ages 15 to 24. The claim is bolstered by FBI statistics showing that the number of murder offenders under the age of 18 and 22 both jumped dramatically in 2005. But the number of young people has risen for some years, with no discernible impact on crime before now.
Some experts suggest the country is suffering the fallout of its own "get tough" crime policies in the 1980s and '90s. The problem was explored in a 2003 Urban Institute study of Maryland, which suggested that the state will face increasing challenges in dealing with a growing population struggling to re-enter society after being incarcerated.
G-men. The uncertainty has not deterred federal eyes from turning back to the problem of urban crime. Under pressure from police groups, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales announced the Initiative for Safer Communities in October, a study of 18 areas with both rising and falling crime to analyze the most effective law enforcement methods. Last month, California Sen. Dianne Feinstein sent a letter to FBI Director Robert Mueller, urging the agency to "re-evaluate its priorities" and place a higher emphasis on investigating violent crime. And Bush administration officials say the president could make an anticrime effort part of his State of the Union address January 23 or put a new initiative in his proposed budget for fiscal year 2008.
Local officials are also rethinking their efforts. In Indianapolis, which saw homicides climb from 110 in 2005 to 137 last year, police have installed their own version of the increasingly popular Compstat system, which combines computerized crime mapping with management brainstorming sessions on how best to combat the latest local crime trends. Recommendations from a mayor's task force are also expected shortly. "We're very optimistic that we'll see a decrease in those numbers in 2007," says Police Chief Michael Spears.
But the year didn't start well. About four hours into 2007, 27-year-old Eric Munoz was found dead in the clubhouse of Indianapolis's Naptown Riders motorcycle club. For Spears, the homicide was humbling, a reminder of a police department's limitations. "If we had 10 officers on patrol outside that location, it wouldn't have prevented it," he says.
The news is worse in New Orleans, where at least seven people have been murdered since the New Year-six within 24 hours. One was 36-year-old Helen Hill, who was shot in the neck inside her home. When police arrived, they found her husband bleeding from gunshot wounds to his hand, arm, and cheek. He was holding the couple's 2-year-old son. The statistics may be ambiguous, but in many cities, the bangs are real.
With Carol S. Hook
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