Changing the Guard
It's a new day on Capitol Hill, and Democrats say they have a plan. Now they have to make it work
The Democrats swooped into Washington last week for their first week in power in 12 years. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the first woman to lead the House, hoisted the gavel, was serenaded by Tony Bennett and the former members of the Grateful Dead, and had a hometown Baltimore street named after her. In the House of Representatives, the party passed a set of ethics and earmark reforms in the first two days of the session and now embarks on a 100-hour legislative sprint to show it can govern. In the coming days, President Bush will deliver his much-anticipated speech on Iraq policy, and Democrats have plans to haul Defense Secretary Robert Gates and the nation's top intelligence officials before Congress.
There's no mistaking the shift in tone and power on Capitol Hill. Elected with a mandate to clean up Washington by a deeply disgruntled public, Democrats have a mighty task ahead and a plan to move quickly in the first few weeks. But their efforts are fraught with any number of challenges: holding the progressive and centrist wings of the party together, turning legislation into law with the slimmest of Senate majorities, and working with a president who has seen little resistance from Capitol Hill during his six years in office. How Democrats fare in the next few months-before the presidential election begins to overwhelm Washington-will help determine whether the party maintains control in 2008 and beyond. And for political junkies, it should be quite a show.
Beginnings. First up, Democrats plan to pass their 100-hour agenda through the House before the president's State of the Union address on January 23. "It's not the specifics of what they pass that matters," says Mickey Edwards, a former Republican representative from Oklahoma. "What matters is that when Bush stands up in front of Congress, the people in front of him have already sent notice to him that they're in charge."
The Democrats' agenda, known as the Six for '06, encompasses six politically appealing bills. Those measures would hike the minimum wage to $7.25 an hour, increase federal funds for embryonic stem cell research, implement most of the 9/11 commission's still-outstanding recommendations, repeal tax breaks for oil companies, halve interest rates on student loans, and allow the government to negotiate the price of Medicare prescription drugs. "We view these first 100 hours as essentially a mandate of the American people," said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. "We said to the American people that if you elect us, this is what we'll do." Democrats have decided to proceed with their agenda without an opportunity for Republicans to add amendments to the bills or to let the bills pass through the normal committee hearing procedure. Republicans immediately cried foul, but Democrats counter that the bills have been subject to congressional hearings in the past and were supported in the election.
The six bills may very well sail through the House, since the Democrats hold a 233-to-202-seat majority there. That's the easy part. "Passing the four items out of the House is training camp," says Brad Woodhouse of the Change America Now coalition, a group of labor unions and progressive groups that is lobbying for the agenda. "Getting them through the Senate is the regular season. Getting them signed by the president is the Super Bowl." Take embryonic stem cell research, for example: In 2005, Bush used the sole veto of his presidency to override a bill that would have increased such funding.
Deliberation. What happens next in the Senate could take much longer. Majority Leader Harry Reid has said Democrats' first 10 bills will follow normal procedures and be open to committee hearings. With a narrow 50-to-49-seat majority in the Senate-well short of the 60 votes necessary to overcome a filibuster-Democrats know they must work closely with Republicans to pass legislation. The tenuous nature of their hold has been underscored since mid-December, when Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota suffered a brain hemorrhage and was rushed to the hospital, where he remains in critical condition. Then there are the competing ambitions of roughly 10 presidential candidates from both parties, including presumptive front-runners John McCain, Barack Obama, and Hillary Rodham Clinton, that Reid must navigate.
The Democratic unity could be put to the test soon after the State of the Union speech, when Democrats begin to tackle a litany of thorny issues-from labor laws governing union organization to trade authorization and universal healthcare-that could drive a wedge between conservative and liberal Democrats and complicate the re-election of Democrats who won narrowly in heavily Republican districts. Labor unions and the party's left wing have bought into the 100-hour agenda as a "down payment" for their wish lists of new programs and laws. "There is no question. [Pelosi] is in a hard spot," says Robert Borosage, head of the progressive Campaign for America's Future. "The base of the party is demanding a significant challenge to the president."
The party's tensions were most visibly on display last week over Iraq. Democratic House Caucus Chair Rahm Emanuel tried to hold a press conference, only to be drowned out by a war protesters led by Cindy Sheehan, who became a household name after protesting outside the president's ranch. "De-escalate, investigate; troops home now!" they chanted, driving Emanuel back into a closed-door meeting. Democratic leaders, Sheehan said, "need to include the grass-roots voices."
Many of the tough oversight hearings on issues such as no-bid contracts in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and food and drug safety methods are likely to come after the State of the Union address so as not to overshadow the 100-hour agenda. Rep. John Dingell of Michigan, a 51-year veteran of the House, is finalizing his roster of Energy and Commerce Committee lieutenants this week and will then decide on hearings and potential legislation; Rep. Henry Waxman's powerful Committee on Oversight (newly added to the title) and Government Reform is doing pretty much the same thing. Several committees in both houses have vowed tough oversight hearings on Iraq, but the political challenges are heady; Congress has few options other than restricting or adding conditions to the funding of the war. "We will work on that to the best of our ability," says Reid. He and Pelosi warned Bush late last week that a troop surge would be misguided and urged the president to plan a phased withdrawal of troops.
Those old bull Democratic committee chairmen like Dingell, Waxman, and Rep. Charles Rangel of New York have been out of power for 12 years and are now eager for vigorous oversight, which could put them at odds with younger Democrats, who have a more centrist ideology and who worry about re-election in Republican-heavy districts. "I think there is an overall appreciation by the most senior members," says Rep. Joe Crowley of New York, a veteran moderate Democrat, "that the reason why Democrats are in control of the House is that we were able to reach beyond the traditional voting bloc to moderates." Such tensions haven't yet manifested themselves, but Democratic strategists see potential problems on issues like trade, spending, and taxes.
The most bruising fights in Congress will most likely come down to dollars and cents budget questions in the spring. Bush said last week he'd work with congressional Democrats, while throwing down the gauntlet on any attempt to raise taxes and saying his economic plan would balance the federal budget by 2012. Democrats so far vow to abide by rules that require any increase in new entitlement spending to be offset by tax revenue or cuts to other programs. The Democrats in charge of the House Budget and Appropriations committees have said Congress will "face a fiscal challenge of historic proportions" in 2007, given the costs of both the Bush tax cuts and the Iraq war (the president will ask Congress for roughly $100 billion in a supplemental bill in February). "I don't think you'll see a major liberal agenda pushed by the Democrats' caucus at the end of the day," says Jim Turner, a former Democratic representative from Texas. "Once the war is behind us and we have a chance to recover from the huge deficits that we're facing, then maybe."
Democrats and Republicans have pledged cooperation, with Senate leaders holding a bipartisan meeting last week to find common ground. But Republicans have a simple new fact to learn-life in the minority. "It's important to recognize," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said, standing beside Reid, "that over the past 25 years some of the most important achievements have been during a period of divided government." After their November losses, House Republicans said they'd strongly attack Democrats from the get-go, but they've now softened their approach-at least for the first month.
The bipartisanship may hold through January, giving Democrats something of a political honeymoon. How well they avoid the political traps in the months ahead and help shape Iraq policy will go much further in determining whether the 2006 election was merely a blip in the Republicans' control or a decisive realignment.
With Paul Bedard and Kevin Whitelaw
This story appears in the January 15, 2007 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.