Looking Down the Road to Damascus
New interest in–and some old doubts about–Syria
What Syria wants from Israel is the Golan Heights, the strategically important, water-rich land it lost in the 1967 Six-Day War. What Assad wants from the United States is a free hand to reassert Syrian authority in Lebanon and respite from the United Nations probe into the assassination of former Lebanese President Rafiq Hariri. The Bush administration–not to mention most Lebanese–is loath to concede either point.
In Israel, a polarized debate is on over whether Assad's peace offerings are sincere or not. Meir Dagan, chief of the Mossad intelligence agency, told the Knesset the Syrian gambit was merely a sleight–of-hand "white rabbit" to stave off international pressure. Army intelligence officials, however, tell the Knesset that not only is Assad serious; he may even be agreeable to letting Israel take 20 years to give back the Golan Heights.
A recent poll found that Israelis favor talks with Syria by a 2-to-1 margin. Yet the survey found that the same 2-to-1 margin opposes relinquishing the entire Golan, a nonnegotiable Syrian demand. On the second question, at least, Olmert stands with the majority, saying, "As long as I serve as prime minister, the Golan Heights will remain in our hands because it is an integral part of the State of Israel." Olmert, however, is known for softening his positions on disputed territory, and if he were to become less possessive toward the Golan, he wouldn't be the first Israeli prime minister to do so.
For all the uncertainty over Assad's intentions and the even greater uncertainty over whether peace talks could succeed, a key question is emerging: What's there to lose by trying? Miri Eisin, Olmert's foreign-media spokeswoman, replies that peace talks with Assad "could arrive at an impasse that could lead to war." But there's also a danger of war with Syria in the absence of peace talks, intelligence officials have been warning.
Olmert has not tried to hide his unwillingness to cross Bush, saying, "We must not respond to the Syrian initiative while President Bush, Israel's most important ally, opposes all negotiations with Syria." Fumes one prominent dove, Meretz leader Yossi Beilin: "This is the first time in history that an Arab leader says he wants to talk to Israel and an American president says no."
Until Bush says yes, neither Israel nor the United States will be talking with Syria. But as long as every other diplomatic avenue to peace in Iraq or anywhere else in the Middle East appears impassable, the road to Damascus is likely to continue to seem a tempting one.
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