Bayh and Sell
The Indiana senator with the political pedigree is pitching himself as a moderate alternative who could win
KEENE, N.H.-Later in the day, across the state, Barack Obama will wow a crowd of 1,500 Democrats by telling them what they want to hear-that their party's moment has arrived. "America is ready to turn the page," he will say. But this morning, in a dining room in this colonial-era lumber town, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh is doling out tough love. When someone asks how he'd cut the federal deficit, Bayh says Democrats should rein in spending before rolling back President Bush's tax cuts: "We need to re-establish our fiscal responsibility." When another audience member asks how he'll persuade Americans to drive less and buy smaller cars to combat global warming, Bayh pushes back. "The key is not to ask for sacrifice for no reason," he says. "You've got to convince them the sacrifice will get the result they have every right to expect."
And when a schoolteacher gripes that Bush's No Child Left Behind law places unreasonable demands on student achievement, Bayh makes clear that he generally supports the plan. "We're asking people for money for schools," he says. "We need to ensure that more dollars translate into better education."
Bayh's challenges to liberal orthodoxy inspire more nodding admiration than enthusiastic applause. Just before leaving, though, he holds up two maps of his home state. The first, showing the counties that Bush won in 2004, when the president took 60 percent of the Indiana vote, is almost uniformly red. The other, solidly blue, shows the counties Bayh took that same year, when he was re-elected with 62 percent of the vote. "We can win in places like Indiana," he says to a round of oohs and ahhs. "We don't have to sell out to appeal to Republicans and independents. But we do have to reach out."
As Bayh plots a presidential bid for 2008, however-he formed an exploratory committee this month but says he's waiting until early next year to make an official announcement-his challenge for the next year and a half will be reaching out to activist primary voters in his own party who are skeptical of his consensus politics. And, for now, Bayh has steeper hills to climb. In a field that could include such celebrities as Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton and previous presidential candidates like John Kerry and John Edwards, the junior senator from the Hoosier State is a virtual unknown. In a recent Fox News poll in which Democrats were asked to pick their top presidential choice, Bayh was tied for sixth place, with 2 percent of the vote. And yet because of his résumé-which includes two terms as Indiana governor-proven fundraising ability, and an early effort to build a serious ground game, many handicappers say Bayh is the strongest moderate Democrat looking to challenge Clinton for the '08 nomination.
Seeds. Recognizing his disadvantage in name ID, Bayh began constructing a grass-roots network for his presidential campaign more than six months ago. The centerpiece of the operation so far has been Camp Bayh, a program that hired and trained 50 field staffers to work for Democratic candidates in the run-up to last month's elections, mostly in state legislative races in Iowa and New Hampshire, where early presidential contests will occur in '08. An official with the New Hampshire Democratic Party says Bayh put more staff on the ground than any other potential presidential contender. On Election Day, Democrats reclaimed both chambers of the Granite State legislature. "Bayh was one of the major forces helping us make the sweep," says Sara Kelly, a New Hampshire state rep-elect. "I'm very grateful."
Beyond putting out chits among state-level lawmakers and party activists to collect in 2008, the Camp Bayh field staff allowed Bayh to build voter and activist lists and to collect other on-the-ground political intelligence. "Bayh's people learned the ropes of grass-roots politics here," says Janet Petersen, a state representative in Iowa, where Democrats also reclaimed both houses of the state legislature last month. "Those staffers made friends across the state to go back to when it's time to put together caucus supporters."
Other Democratic presidential hopefuls plowed more money into the midterms-Kerry gave $14 million to Democratic candidates-but Bayh begins the '08 cycle with a healthy $10.5 million in the bank, much of it left over from his '04 Senate re-election. He has signed up 400 fundraisers and made a strong play for donors to former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner after Warner announced in October that he would not seek the presidency. "Warner was leading the moderate anti-Hillary bracket in ability to raise money," says the Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy. "Now that person is Bayh."
In the 13 months until the Iowa caucus, Bayh's advisers will direct that money toward convincing voters that he has the experience, vision, and demeanor to be president, using the inevitable stumbles of the front-runners as opportunities to present Bayh as a viable alternative. Needing a strong finish in Iowa or New Hampshire, Bayh wants to be seen as the outsider challenging the party establishment. Unlike Howard Dean's 2004 antiwar campaign, however, Bayh will make the case that his centrism makes him electable, using Jimmy Carter's insurgent 1976 campaign as a blueprint. Carter took off after his surprise win in Iowa against his party's liberal front-runner, who happened to be then Indiana Sen. Birch Bayh, Evan Bayh's father. "Carter had spent a year or two in living rooms and developing personal relationships," says Birch Bayh. "That's what Evan is trying to do now."
Résumé. Born in Indiana but raised mostly in Washington during his father's three Senate terms, Evan Bayh attended St. Alban's, an elite prep school, but declined to apply to Ivy League colleges so he could attend Indiana University. "I wanted to go home," he says. The way Bayh tells it, "I'm from Indiana, not Washington." He was elected secretary of state of Indiana in 1986 at age 30 and two years later won his race for governor, helped by the lasting popular affection for his dad. For the next eight years, Bayh worked with a Republican state Senate and almost evenly divided House to balance the budget, pass tax cuts, and amass a $1.6 billion budget surplus. "Some Democrats were not happy with him as governor because they thought he was more Republican than Democrat," says Eric Waltenburg, a political science professor at Purdue University. "But he couldn't lead effectively without recognizing the influence of Republicans."
Bayh also pursued more traditional Democratic reforms in education and welfare, while emphasizing personal responsibility. His 21st Century Scholars program guaranteed high-risk middle schoolers a full ride at any state college but only if they signed and kept a pledge to avoid drugs and alcohol and to maintain a minimum grade-point average. On the campaign trail, Bayh plays up his years as governor to distinguish himself from other Democratic contenders, who lack similar executive experience. "When you're governor, you're accountable for making things work," he says. "In the Senate ... you cast votes and give speeches, but you never have to implement things."
First elected to the Senate in 1998, Bayh continued forging a moderate record, landing seats on the Armed Services and Intelligence committees, which he says give him solid national security credentials. He upset traditional Democratic constituencies with votes to normalize trade relations with China and to support the ban on the procedure critics call "partial-birth" abortion.
Calling for pressure. In recent years, Bayh's voting record has drifted leftward; he opposed confirmation for Bush's two Supreme Court appointments. Unlike Senator Clinton, Bayh calls his initial vote authorizing the Iraq war a mistake. But on the campaign trail, he plays to the center. Rather than universal health insurance, he promotes hefty tax credits for small businesses that finance employee health insurance. Rather than call for an immediate pullout of Iraq, he stresses the need to pressure Nouri al-Maliki's government. "I'm not for leadership of the lowest common denominator or a mushy middle," he says after a stump speech in a renovated barn in Cornish, N.H., where the ground is already dusted with snow. "But polarization and division is keeping us from getting the kinds of progress we need, and most Americans sense that."
Beyond his discourses on "principled pragmatism," Bayh's polished yet straightforward speaking style has prompted some doubts about his charisma credentials. "In Indiana, he was considered relatively flashy," says Cecil Bohanon, an economics professor at Ball State University. "But on the national level, midwesterners don't come off as charismatic." Still, Bayh's advisers believe he "exudes authenticity," another reason he has made more than 19 trips to Iowa and New Hampshire to address small audiences. At most events, he bemoans having to miss another of his twin sons' hockey or soccer games, and his family-man reputation wears well on the campaign trail. "Iowans are different than East Coast or West Coast Democrats who are enamored by celebrity," says Jeff Danielson, an Iowa state senator who is close to Bayh. "We still expect to meet our presidential candidates up close and personal in a town hall setting." Still, Bayh, careful to avoid ever criticizing Clinton or Obama by name, has already begun to do so implicitly. "In a time of peace and prosperity, maybe this could be about celebrity status," he says. "This is a more serious moment for our country." It's a well-crafted argument. But it's still a hard sell.
Sen. Evan Bayh
Full name: Birch Evans Bayh III
Born: Dec. 26, 1955; Shirkieville, Ind.
Family: Married, wife Susan. Twin boys, 11, Birch Evans IV (Beau) and Nicholas Harrison (Nick)
Education: Indiana U., B.S., 1978; U. of Virginia, J.D., 1982
Public service: Indiana secretary of state, 1987-88; governor, 1989-96; senator, 1999-present; Intellgience, Armed Services committees
This story appears in the December 25, 2006 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.