This Land is My Land
The big stakes-and bubbling tensions-over who will control Iraq's oil capital
But there remain concerns that such charges are difficult to prove. "The Kurds certainly resort to violent means, murders or whatever it happens to be, significantly less than the Sunni and Shia, but that doesn't mean they're not doing it at all," says one senior U.S. military official. "The circumstances are in their favor that they can pick and choose and be very discreet about it." Capt. Robert Wolfe, company commander in the 2nd Battalion, 35th Infantry Regiment, assigned to Kirkuk, says that nearly all of the detainees brought in by Iraqi security forces in this region are Arab. "Arabs get the raw end of the deal a lot, because the Kurds are working with us," says Wolfe. "I say, 'Look, man, I'm happy to arrest Kurds if they are terrorists.' But the Arabs never give us anything."
One recent bid to improve the city's security was a 9-mile-long trench. Some 3 feet wide and 6 feet deep, it was designed to funnel traffic from the south through checkpoints. Security has improved since it was dug, U.S. military officials say, with the number of car bombs down dramatically. But this move, too, has inflamed tensions here. Many Arabs see the trench as designed to keep them out-a charge the Kurds deny. U.S. officials were mildly surprised when work on the trench started, since they were never consulted. "At this point," says Stackpole, "if they decide to put in a trench-they normally coordinate, but they don't have to ask us anymore."
American provincial reconstruction members are working hard to stabilize the area through public works, including sewage and water projects that they hope will sustain themselves after U.S. troops leave and lower tensions stemming from Arab charges that they are being denied services by the Kurdish-led government. Says one U.S. official: "You definitely see fewer services in the Arab areas."
A "confidence bridge." The stakes will only rise here as the government grapples with its hydrocarbon laws, which will determine how profits from new oil discoveries will be divided. The Iraq Study Group recommends sharing the wealth, dividing oil profits by regional population. The Kurds insist that money from any new oil finds in the north will belong to the Kurdish regional government. "How they share the oil-by region, by provinces, purely central government-has a big impact on the stakes of the referendum," says Stackpole. "If they say all the oil, no matter what, is going to be centralized through Baghdad, it'll be less of a prize to winning the referendum."
The Kurds say they remain confident that the oil revenue in the north will be theirs to control-and are confident of the outcome of any vote. The city, with its estimated population of 1 million, is thought to be currently about 43 percent Kurdish and 35 percent Arab. But Kurdish politicos warn that things could get ugly should anything get in the way of the vote next year.
"We'd like to build a 'confidence bridge' between the people and the government," says Mustafa. "But not implementing the referendum means the damage of that bridge. And that," he adds, "will have very bad and negative consequences on the people."
U.S. military officials here say they are uncertain whether the vote will move ahead or be delayed. But both possibilities come with at least short-term pain. "Either way," says one U.S. military official, "it'll be ugly here for a while."
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