Senator's Illness Highlights Tenuous Balance of Power
As South Dakota Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson recovers from emergency brain surgery in a hospital in Washington, D.C., speculation is in full swing about what could happen should Johnson vacate his seat, possibly tipping the balance of power in the Senate to Republicans.
In a statement today, Adm. John Eisold, the attending physician for the Capitol, said that Johnson was found to have bleeding inside his brain caused by a "congenital arteriovenous malformation." The condition causes blood vessels to tangle, putting them at risk for blocking the flow of blood or rupturing.
Eisold said the surgery to stabilize the malformation and remove the blood was successful but added that "it is premature to determine whether further surgery will be required or to assess any long-term prognosis." The statement leaves open the question of whether Johnson will recover enough to continue his duties as a senator.
Both Democrats and Republicans issued prayers and good wishes for a full recovery by Johnson. But with the balance of the incoming Senate at a slim 51-to-49 majority for the Democrats, Johnson's health has serious implications for control of the chamber.
If Johnson were to die or decide to resign, Republican South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds would most likely name a Republican to complete Johnson's term, which ends in 2008. That would leave the Senate tied 50-50, and Vice President Cheney would cast the deciding vote for a GOP majority.
Johnson's hospitalization comes on the heels of Wyoming's GOP Sen. Craig Thomas's treatment for leukemia last month. But Thomas is back at work, and his condition does not raise the same issues for the Senate as a whole. Wyoming's Gov. Dave Freudenthal is a Democrat, but if Thomas were to vacate his seat, state law requires Freudenthal to select a replacement from a list of three candidates provided by the Republican state central committee.
So long as Johnson survives and wishes to continue to hold his seat, the Senate has little power to compel him to step down. Indeed, history offers a precedent from Johnson's own state.
In 1969, Karl Mundt, a South Dakota Republican, suffered a stroke and did not vote or even appear on the Senate floor for the remaining three years of his term. His wife resisted efforts by GOP leaders to get him to step down, however, and even insisted that he would run for re-election, though the GOP did not renominate him. Several other senators and representatives have served while their health severely limited their ability to work.
The Constitution does grant the Senate the power to expel a member, but such an action has been reserved for members with ethical lapses, is exceedingly rare, and would require approval by two thirds of the chamber.
Yet even if Johnson recovers and holds on to his seat, the incident highlights the tenuous grip that Democrats have on the majority in the Senate, one they cannot count on for the next two years. Nineteen of the 51 Democrats serve states that as of January will have Republican governors, who would most likely select a member of their party to fill any vacancies.
Additionally, a disaffected Democratic senator could decide to switch parties or become an independent and caucus with the Republicans. Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont, who is retiring from the Senate this year, left the GOP in 2001 and decided to caucus with the Democrats, throwing the majority to them.
In the new Congress, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, who this year lost the Democratic primary for his seat but won re-election as an independent, is the most obvious candidate to switch teams. He said throughout his campaign and after re-election that he would caucus with the Democrats but has left open the possibility that the GOP could garner his support.
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