'Civil War' or Not?
While U.S. pols and pundits debate labels, Iraqis fear their country is sliding deeper into the abyss
BAGHDAD–With its crisp air and blue skies, the late fall offers some of the best weather in an often unpleasant climate. But as daily violence continues to convulse Baghdad, people tend to go outside only when necessary. The city's many playgrounds are overgrown from disuse, with grass that rises as high as the seats of rusted swing sets. The ambulance siren, residents now say, is the country's national anthem.
As the capital last week eased out of the round-the-clock curfew imposed after the bombing of the Shiite enclave of Sadr City that killed over 200 people, traffic was light–except on the airport road, where families packed into cars and braved roadside bombs for the chance to fly to another place. Exhausted and heartbroken, many Iraqis who remain are nonetheless reluctant to call the violent turmoil here a civil war. "We've been living all together, Sunni, Shia, Christian," says Baghdad policeman Ali Khalaf Jasim, his tone tinged with disbelief. "This can't be civil war."
Such sentiments are a nod to tribal ties and intermarriage that bind millions together across sects. But with each passing day those relationships seem more strained–along with hopes that the government can do anything about it. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is increasingly viewed as weak and beholden to radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who temporarily suspended–but did not withdraw, Iraqi government spokesmen were quick to point out–his bloc's membership in the national parliament to protest the prime minister's meeting with President Bush.
Skeptics. Maliki got no boost with the pre-meeting disclosure of an assessment by White House National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley–a memo that allowed that "his intentions seem good." But, it added, "the reality on the streets of Baghdad suggests Maliki is either ignorant of what is going on, misrepresenting his intentions, or that his capabilities are not yet sufficient to turn his good intentions into action." Such assessments mirror the views of many in Iraq–minus the part, particularly among Sunnis, about good intentions.
The memo prompted heavy questioning from Iraqi journalists about what, precisely, the prime minister's plans were. Maliki announced one of them–to have his country assume control of its own security forces by June 2007, a development that would, he said, allow U.S. troops to begin withdrawing. In the meantime, a government spokesman added, what Maliki needs are "tools to rise up and to find a solution for the crisis."
Militia power. One of the tools America offered up last week, an infusion of some 3,500 new U.S. troops to Baghdad, was greeted with little more than a shrug among some Iraqis who wondered whether more soldiers will make much of a difference as political parties build militias to consolidate their power. These militias now control access to vital resources like healthcare and increasingly subscribe to the view that, in the words of one Iraqi journalist, "the best way to defend their turf is to attack."
American soldiers, too, had questions about what, exactly, more troops will do. "'Go secure Baghdad' is a pretty big hand-wave in a general direction," says Maj. Mark Brady, a U.S. military adviser to an Iraqi Army battalion based in Baghdad. "What does that involve? What are they going to do that others aren't doing right now?" And how, others wonder, will they help to convince tired and shut-in Iraqi citizens that their government can deliver on promises they feel it has broken time and again.
For his part, Lt. Col. Steven Duke, a brigade military transition teams commander, feels his U.S. troops here could use some explanations, as well. "I wish there was a better barometer for our soldiers over here to be able to gauge: 'Are we winning? Are we making progress?'" The other day, he says, a suicide bomb at a police recruiting station sent human body parts over the wall near his headquarters. "Are we in a civil war?" he asks. "I don't know. I know there's a lot of people being killed because of their religious sect, and I know the Iraqi Army here is doing their best to get a grip on it-and they need their government to back them up."
This story appears in the December 11, 2006 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.