Generation Y takes a whirl with the left
But can Dems hold its allegiance down the road?
As for the GOP, Gans says some aspects of its agenda, especially social conservatism and a unilateral foreign policy, are nonstarters for generation Y. But Republicans claim that their smaller base among the young is more dedicated and that a renewed focus on small-government conservatism will swing voters to the right. "I'd be willing to bet you quite a bit that the Republican percentage of the next vote's going to be significantly higher," says Richard Ambrose, the political director for the Young Republican National Federation.
For the GOP's sake, it had better be. Research from the University of Michigan indicates that once voters pick one party in three consecutive elections, they will identify with that party for life, and younger voters have leaned strongly Democratic in both 2004 and 2006.
That makes the 2008 election critical. In the Lake-Goeas poll, young voters gave high marks to likely Republican candidates Rudolph Giuliani and Sen. John McCain and Democratic Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. But Gans is skeptical about either of the front-runners striking a chord, suggesting that McCain's support of the war will eventually cost him and that Clinton "appears calculating, and that is a liability."
In Montana, where much of the credit for Burns's narrow loss to Democrat Jon Tester belongs to Missoula County, home of the University of Montana, Selph says he expects his classmates to gradually turn more toward the GOP. "I call them 'hip Democrats,' because it's the cool thing to do when you're on a college campus," he says. That may be. But the GOP hasn't looked this uncool in a long time.
advertisement
