And They're Off!
John McCain wants to look like the inevitable nominee: so far, so good
CHARLESTON, W.VA.—John McCain gazed longingly at his plate of baked chicken and penne pasta in white sauce but managed to devour only a few morsels before the first stranger arrived. One by one or in small groups, the well-wishers interrupted McCain's lunch with requests to shake his hand or share a snapshot. The silver-haired senator didn't mind. He remains accessible and loquacious, just as he was in his 2000 presidential campaign, in contrast to other candidates at his level, who are walled off by aides and bodyguards. He parlays all this-the likability factor-for all it's worth.
And it's worth quite a lot. "John McCain has made his reputation as a man who is outside the system, a guy who does things differently, who reaches across the aisle to the opposition, and people like that," says a senior Republican strategist. "People like his frankness. They know where he stands. And they think he would be a good guy to have a beer with." And that, in a nutshell, is why McCain is the early leader for the Republican nomination in 2008.
Blunt. The senator from Arizona wasn't hoisting any beers last week after the midterm elections. But he was typically blunt in assessing the Republican disaster. GOP leaders, he said, had departed from core party principles such as less government, lower spending, solid stewardship, and fighting corruption. The Bush administration, he added, had failed to send enough troops to Iraq to begin with and had falsely raised American expectations for a quick victory. Now McCain favors dispatching more troops in the "short term" to help Baghdad's government put down sectarian violence and stabilize the country. And he opposes setting a firm date for U.S. withdrawal, because, he says, that would only cause "chaos in the region" and embolden the terrorists.
Those views on Iraq seem to run counter to the nation's antiwar mood, but McCain has stayed true to his hawkish beliefs. And he has emerged from the midterms in good shape as the GOP front-runner for '08, in the view of many party professionals. For one thing, voters seem more and more attracted to the kind of independence and get-it-done bipartisanship that have been McCain's hallmarks in the Senate. For another, independents turned out in droves last week, and that's a good sign for a man who has always done well with swing voters and the unaffiliated.
"McCain is a formidable candidate," says Joe Lockhart, a Democratic strategist and former White House press secretary for President Bill Clinton. "He's the one guy out there who people don't see as a politician."
Yet McCain has also tried to demonstrate that he is a loyal party man. He attended 346 events and raised $10.5 million for the GOP and the party's candidates for the 2006 midterm cycle. On the eve of the election, in fact, Florida's Republican gubernatorial candidate, Charlie Crist, skipped a scheduled joint appearance with President Bush in Pensacola in favor of appearing with McCain in Jacksonville.
McCain, 70, knows that when there's no incumbent seeking re-election, Republican front-runners have a good chance to win their party's endorsement. Among the early front-runners to win the nomination were George W. Bush in 2000, Bob Dole in 1996, Ronald Reagan in 1980, and Richard Nixon in 1968.
"McCain's whole thing is he is the inevitable nominee," says a longtime party operative. "He is building a campaign based on the idea that he can win and that everybody should jump on his bandwagon."
Yet McCain has clear vulnerabilities, and his ride could easily be derailed. He will be the main target for other candidates, of course, and he'll have to endure more media scrutiny than anyone else. His health could also be an issue; he would be the oldest person ever to become president, at 72, and he has suffered from a variety of health problems, including melanoma. Successful surgery left him with a deep scar on the left side of his face. He suffered serious injuries, including permanent disability from two shattered arms, when he was shot down in 1967 as a Navy aviator in Vietnam. He was a POW for five years, during which he endured brutal torture at the hands of his captors. Friends say he has no psychic scars from the experience, but there has long been a whispering campaign alleging that McCain has an explosive temper.
In policy terms, many conservatives remain suspicious of McCain's commitment to their causes, such as banning abortion, fighting gun control, and prohibiting same-sex marriage. McCain also has run afoul of conservatives by pushing for an overhaul of the campaign finance laws. And he has tangled with leaders of the Christian conservative movement, arguing during his unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2000 that they were prejudiced and divisive. As part of his effort to mend fences, he made a visit to Jerry Falwell's Liberty University this past May and reached out to other Christian conservative leaders.
Munchies. Sitting next to a U.S. News reporter, whom he had invited to ride back to Washington on a private executive jet from an appearance in West Virginia, McCain removed his suit jacket and black loafers and extended his legs into the aisle. He asked his one traveling aide to toss him a bottle of water from a fridge, and he proceeded to answer questions for an hour as he munched peanut butter-filled sandwich crackers and chocolate filled cookies. He said his wife, Cindy, would chastise him for his bad eating habits when he got home and dutifully reported his dietary trespasses.
McCain told U.S. News that his political philosophy is modeled on Ronald Reagan's-"my belief in the greatness of America,"abiding faith in the American people,"the government closest to the people is the best government"-and a commitment to free enterprise and entrepreneurship.
In the interview and in public remarks that afternoon, McCain offered a tour of the political landscape. He said politicians engage in too much negative campaigning, demeaning the election process. He said there is too much wasteful spending in Washington, and he used a Reaganesque example of a $3 million study of the DNA of bears in Montana. "We've lost our way," he said. "We are no longer the party of fiscal conservatism."
McCain wants to return to the principles of his three political heroes-Reagan, who espoused optimism and less government; Theodore Roosevelt, who opposed concentration of power and carried a big stick internationally; and Abraham Lincoln, the Great Emancipator who saved the Union.
During a news conference in a Charleston, W.Va., hotel, a reporter reminded McCain that in the South Carolina primary campaign of 2000, opponents falsely accused McCain of fathering an out-of-wedlock child. "That was very unfortunate," McCain said sadly but added: "You put these things behind you and move on and make sure you don't allow your anger or your bitterness to affect how you serve the country ... I want to be a person, if I run, who doesn't hold grudges." After such a vicious campaign season, that kind of personal story suggests that John McCain understands the public's desire for a kinder, gentler politics very well indeed.
This story appears in the November 20, 2006 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.