Democratic Victory Could Spell Trouble for Rumsfeld
Just as the midterm election was a powerful national referendum on American progress in Iraq, so, too, was it a referendum on the popularity of Donald Rumsfeld. Even as President Bush once again expressed support for his defense secretary last week, Rumsfeld was repeatedly singled out as the architect of a failing war by campaigning Democrats and Republicans alike. In the wake of a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives, officials in the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill say that life will become considerably more difficult for a man who next month would become the longest-serving secretary of defense in American history.
For starters, the Democratic victory raises the prospect of "some very unpleasant hearings on Capitol Hill," says Andrew Krepinevich, a defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments–hearings run by Democrats who have come to power "primarily on the Iraq issue, because of the American people's frustration with it," he adds. In the months leading up to the election, congressional hearings seemed to bear out a widening gap between the top brass in the military and the Department of Defense's civilian leadership. Across the country, 2 out of 3 voters called the war very important to them, while 6 in 10 voters said they disapproved of the war.
Democratic control of the House means far more robust oversight of the war in Iraq, as well as of defense contractors such as Haliburton. Rep. Ike Skelton, the Missouri Democrat who will very likely assume the chairmanship of the House Armed Services Committee, tells U.S. News that "no question, there will be more oversight." He adds that Democrats "hope to have an investigation" of the war in Iraq in the House oversight subcommittee. With its subpoena power, the House can regularly call up witnesses like Rumsfeld to account for war progress and spending. It's a prospect "that could get old fast" for the defense secretary, says a Pentagon official.
Ultimately, the White House is at the helm of U.S. Iraq policy. But whether Rumsfeld is replaced depends on two powerful factors, say analysts: whether Rumsfeld will fall on his sword in the wake of an overwhelming Democratic victory–not historically his style, says a former government official–or whether Bush decides he should go. To that end, the combination of Democratic control of Congress and the highly anticipated recommendations out of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group expected on the heels of the election could argue powerfully for a change of direction in Iraq–and a new leader in the DOD to carry it out. "This seems to be the one thing that could change the dynamic," says Krepinevich, "in terms of what the president wants."
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