In the End, Pivotal Races Tipped to Democrats
Updated 11/9/06, 11:32 a.m.
Dissatisfaction with Bush administration policy in Iraq and scandals that have plagued the Republican Party drove voters to the polls Tuesday, and some venerable Republicans–from Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum to 13-term Florida Rep. Clay Shaw–out of office.
Democrats savored a pickup of about 30 seats in the House (they needed 15 for a majority) and, with two close victories in Montana and Virginia, have also won back control of the Senate.
The 19 races followed this campaign season by reporters at U.S.News & World Report largely followed the nationwide trend, with a few notable exceptions. In a nationally watched race, Republican Connecticut Rep. Christopher Shays, a longtime supporter of the Iraq war, defied expectations and won a 10th term in a squeaker. And in Ohio, Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce appears to have shaken off criticism for her role in the digraced House GOP leadership and pulled out a win.
The races, almost to a one, were hard fought and nasty. Record sums of money were spent nationally–an estimated $3 billion alone on advertising–and heavyweights from both parties fanned out across the country. In the end, the results hinged not on local issues but on frustration with what voters saw as a culture of corruption, a badly managed war, and dissastisfaction with the direction of the national economy.
A morning-after view of our targeted races can be found here:
SENATE
Montana: It's Not Over Till It's Over
Democratic challenger Jon Tester hung on to beat Republican incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns, whose series of verbal blunders and ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff put his 18-year incumbency in jeopardy.
High turnout, equipment glitches, and a recount in Yellowstone County held up the vote tally more than eight hours after polls were scheduled to close.
Recent polls had given Tester leads ranging from 2 to 9 percentage points. But Burns almost closed the gap in the last two weeks by tapping into a war chest of $7.4 million and bombarding the airwaves with ads that painted Tester as a liberal out of touch with Montana. Yet Tester's folksy attitude and populist stance appealed to many Montanans, and his campaign worked hard to turn out Democratic voters. Tester "was able to keep in voters' minds the things they didn't like about Burns ... and not let Burns define him," says Christopher Muste, a political science professor at the University of Montana–Missoula.
Burns had seen his approval ratings tumble this year, reflecting the sour mood of voters nationwide toward Republicans and also Burns's association with Abramoff. Recently Burns was also mocked for having said President Bush had a secret plan for victory in Iraq that he was not sharing with Democrats. He later said he misspoke. –Danielle Knight
Missouri: Rural Voters Swing Race for McCaskill
In a crucial win for Democrats, state Auditor Claire McCaskill defeated Republican incumbent Sen. Jim Talent, riding a wave of dissatisfaction with the president and concern about kitchen table issues. McCaskill's 3 percentage point victory, many said, hinged on her strategy of courting outstate Missouri voters.
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