The World
Unseen Hands Stir the Pot in Beirut
Divining political meaning from even the smallest clues might be the national pastime of Lebanon, and these days there is a lot to work with. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week went on TV to demand formation of a new "national unity" cabinet by November 13-effectively seeking more influence for his radical Shiite group-while his allies threatened massive street demonstrations.
Behind his moves, the United States sees the hands of Syria and Iran trying to bring down the American-backed, elected government led by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. But Washington's affections are part of Siniora's political problems, since many Lebanese blame the Bush administration for giving a nod to Israel's attacks, which they say went far beyond targeting Hezbollah's military apparatus. A poll shows as much as 70 percent of Lebanon willing to entertain the idea of a new government-a far higher level of support than Hezbollah would normally receive in what's perhaps the most pro-western Arab country.
A possible return to power by pro-Syrian forces could kill the international tribunal investigating the 2005 murder of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, which is widely thought to have been the work of Syrian intelligence. It would also remove whatever little pressure now exists for Hezbollah to disarm, as called for by the U.N. Security Council as part of the deal for Israel's pullback.
Already, rumors of weapons shipments to various factions are swirling. "Oh, God, it could be time for me to wash off my machine gun," says a man called Fares, a former militia fighter loyal to an anti-Syrian party. "If Syria comes back, we will fight them."
An Airstrike and the Angry Aftermath
President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan may have killed as many as 80 suspected militants-and, in doing so, won some points with Washington-but the cost is high for last week's airstrike against a radical Islamic school in the tribal lands near Afghanistan. Acting on an American-provided tip, Pakistani forces destroyed the madrasah they claimed provided training and support for al Qaeda and Taliban fighters.
Among the dead was a radical cleric, though not the perhaps hoped-for higher-value target: al Qaeda's No. 2 leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who supposedly is hiding out in the region and has visited the madrasah. Last January, a U.S. drone fired into another village 2 miles away in a failed attempt to kill Zawahiri, and the political uproar that followed pressured Musharraf to bar future U.S. raids into Pakistan. One Pakistani intelligence source said the Americans pushed for last week's strike based on an informant's bum tip. "If we had not acted promptly," he said, "then U.S. forces would have done it."
Whatever the reason, Musharraf poked a hornet's nest. Thousands of tribesmen in the Banjur region, most already sympathetic to the Taliban and al Qaeda, threatened a wave of suicide attacks against Pakistani forces. They also vowed to kill anyone spying for Pakistan or the United States-and the Associated Press reported the first such victim was found in a dried riverbed, shot execution style.
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