Thursday's Political Wire
Poll: Democrats Lead in Enough Races to Take Senate
A series of Reuters/Zogby polls cited on Political Wire shows that "Democrats are holding at least narrow leads in enough key Republican Senate seats to gain control." The polls show Democrats ahead of Republican incumbents in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Montana, Virginia, and Rhode Island, but Democratic supporters shouldn't get too excited yet because "only the Rhode Island and Pennsylvania races were outside the polls' margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points."
Political Wire pulls out several key findings from the polls, including leads for the Democrats in Maryland and New Jersey as well as a 10-point advantage for Republican Bob Corker over Democrat Harold Ford for a GOP-held open seat in Tennessee. The latter differs from a Rasmussen Reports survey that says Corker holds only a 2-point lead over Ford.
The Reuters poll also agrees with an earlier Quinnipiac poll saying that incumbent independent Joseph Lieberman holds a substantial lead in Connecticut over Democrat Ned Lamont.
Pollster John Zogby said, "the Democrats have a real shot at the Senate now, and six weeks ago you probably could not have said that. But it's still a jump ball, and there has been volatility both ways."
McCaskill Edging Out Talent in Missouri
In a race that will probably come down to the final day, Political Wire cites a Rasmussen Reports poll suggesting that Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill has gained 3 points on Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri over the past week, currently holding a statistically insignificant 1-point lead, 48 to 47 percent.
Political Wire extracts this key finding illustrating how close the race is: "In 15 Missouri polls this season, McCaskill and Talent have been within 3 points of each other 14 times–and within 2 points nine times." In addition, three of the four polls taken in October have found a 1-point race.
Obama Coming Up on Clinton
It may be a very important midterm election coming up, but that doesn't mean we can't look ahead to the presidential election of 2008. Political Wire looks at a new CNN poll that tested Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama's presidential aspirations. The poll finds him trailing only New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the race to become the Democratic nominee. Obama significantly cuts into Clinton's support but trails 28 to 17 percent. Former Sen. John Edwards, former Vice President Al Gore, and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry are tied for third place.
On the Republican side, Rudolph Giuliani edges out Arizona Sen. John McCain 29 to 27 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich comes in third with 12 percent.
Pundit Ann Coulter May Face Felony Charge
Political Wire notes a report from WTSP in Tampa that says "Controversial political pundit Ann Coulter is being investigated for possibly voting in the wrong precinct last February." The report says the crime is "a felony that carries up to five years behind bars."
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