Wednesday's Political Wire
The Computer Says Democrats Will Win
In a new research paper cited on Political Wire, three political scientists from Dartmouth, Columbia, and Temple attempt to use the results of generic congressional polls to predict the outcome of the midterm elections. The report says that "via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome." Their final analysis forecasts the Democrats gaining 32 seats in the House and "Democratic control (18 seats or more) a near certainty."
In Virginia, Glitch Leaves Candidate Nameless
Virginia Democratic Senate nominee Jim Webb's "last name has been cut off on part of the electronic ballot used by voters in Alexandria, Falls Church, and Charlottesville because of a computer glitch," reports Political Wire through the Washington Post. The story acknowledges that Webb's full name appears on the page where voters choose for whom to vote. Instead, the error shows up only on the summary page, where voters are asked to review their selections before casting their votes. Election officials say the problem can't be fixed before Election Day.
... And More Voting Problems Are Predicted
Political Wire cites a report from ElectionOnline.org that predicts that there will be voting irregularities in at least 10 states because they have "a combustible mix of fledgling voting-machine technology, confusion over voting procedures, or recent litigation over election rules–and close races."
Two Senate Polls; Different Results
Earlier this week, Political Wire noted the MSNBC/McClatchy Senate polls were released. More recently, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll was made public. Both found Democratic leads in New Jersey and Ohio and a Republican lead in Tennessee. However, in Missouri, the MSNBC poll concluded that Democrat Claire McCaskill was leading Republican Jim Talent 46 to 43 percent while the L.A. Times had Talent leading McCaskill 48 to 45 percent. Similar inconsistencies exist in Virginia as well. MSNBC has Republican incumbent George Allen ahead of Democratic challenger Jim Webb 47 to 43 percent while the L.A. Times poll found that Webb has overtaken Allen and holds a slim 47 to 44 percent lead.
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