A New Map Out West
The GOP has ruled the Rockies, but demographics give Democrats new hope
AURORA, COLO.-Sipping hot tea from ceramic cups, Alex and Mirlin Rohr and their friends Betty Williams and Ray Hanson looked up politely when a smiling stranger approached their table at the Golden Shanghai Restaurant. It was Ed Perlmutter, Democratic candidate for Congress in suburban Denver's Seventh House District, trolling for votes amid trays of egg rolls. The affable lawyer apologized for interrupting, then proceeded to give a brief spiel about the need for a "new direction" in Washington.
Perlmutter's message of change and independence is a common one among Democratic candidates out west these days. After years of conservative dominance, this region of majestic mountains, endless plains, and sprawling suburbs seems to be moving to the pragmatic middle. And the longtime "out" party sees an opportunity not only to score big wins on November 7 but also to redefine the battlegrounds for the 2008 presidential race.
There's plenty of work left to do. Back at the Golden Shanghai, the Rohrs, both 61, said the biggest issue by far is illegal immigration. Alex, an accountant, said many illegals will simply have to be deported. The husband and wife are independents who usually vote Republican, and they plan to do so again this year. Williams, 77, a retired rancher, feels no allegiance to either party and said the biggest issue is healthcare. Hanson, 78, a former engineer who said he is nonpartisan, is most concerned about the war in Iraq. He vehemently argued that America's recent military conflicts, all the way back to Korea, have wasted billions of dollars and cost countless lives-and "haven't accomplished anything." He and Williams seem to be likely Democratic voters.
Demographics. With the Democrats trying to pick up 15 seats to take control of the House and six in the Senate, they are looking to the West, where a half-dozen House races and the Montana Senate race could help determine the new lineup. Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada are the main flash points. All four states have undergone seismic demographic and political shifts. From 2001 to 2005, Nevada was the nation's fastest-growing state. Arizona was second, Colorado eighth, and New Mexico 16th.
Many of the newcomers are Latinos; they tend to be conservative on social issues such as abortion and school prayer but liberal on economic matters, such as the need for government spending on healthcare and education. This has, on balance, helped the Democrats, but the Hispanic turnout remains a big question mark for November 7.
Overall, service and professional jobs are multiplying throughout the West as farming and mining employment, economic staples for years, have declined. Demand is growing for public services such as mass transit, healthcare, and schools, making the Democrats' pro-government image more appealing and the GOP calls for lower taxes and less government more problematic. Increasingly pragmatic voters also appear less interested in the "values issues" that have tended to help Republicans, such as same-sex marriage, abortion, and gun control.
Add it all up, and Democrats hope a new day is dawning. "We intend to contest Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada as a unit next time in the presidential because we think we can win there," Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean told U.S. News. Dean's theory is that, with a combined total of 29 electoral votes, those four states would make it unnecessary for the Democrats to win Florida, with 27 electoral votes, which they have lost in the last two down-to-the-wire presidential elections. "Bill Clinton won every single one of those states at one time or another," Dean added.
Big brother. Dean said the key to the Democratic resurgence lies in what he sees as the rightward, interventionist shift of the national GOP. "The Republican Party has become the big-brother party, and this is a very libertarian part of the country. ... [Westerners] don't believe it's the government's place to tell them what to do with their personal lives, and this is a government that specializes in telling people what to do in their personal lives."
For his part, Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman told U.S. News: "We do need to have aggressive efforts in the West. ... The complexion of the electorate has changed out there. And if we're smart, then we are working to make sure we reach those new voters."
But it is the Democrats who have gotten most of the good news in recent years. In 2002, Democrats won the governorships in Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming. In 2004, while President Bush was winning most of the states, Democrats scored in state and local races, even winning the governorship of Montana with tough-talking, horseback-riding rancher Brian Schweitzer, who criticizes free-trade agreements as unfair to American workers and opposes gun control. In Colorado, Democrats won control of the state House and Senate for the first time in more than 40 years. And two Hispanic brothers, Ken and John Salazar, both centrist Democrats, won Republican-held seats in Congress-Ken in the Senate and John in the House.
This year, the GOP is under attack from Helena to Albuquerque. In Montana, buzz-cut farmer Jon Tester, president of the state Senate, is mounting a serious challenge to Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, who had ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. In New Mexico, Democratic Attorney General Patricia Madrid is running even with incumbent GOP Rep. Heather Wilson. In Arizona, former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords, a Democrat, is neck and neck with GOP former state Rep. Randy Graf for the House seat being vacated by Republican Jim Kolbe. In Wyoming, Democrat Gary Trauner is in a surprisingly competitive race with six-term Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin. No Democrat has held that seat since 1979.
In Colorado, former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter is far ahead of Republican Bob Beauprez-the current Seventh District representative-in the race for the governorship. Even in the conservative Fifth District centered on Colorado Springs, the Republican congressional candidate is in trouble. Doug Lamborn is under attack-from fellow Republicans-for being too negative as he tries to hold off Democrat Jay Fawcett, a small-business man and Air Force veteran.
Nowhere are the trends more clear than in Colorado's Seventh District, which includes the big Denver suburbs of Lakewood, Wheat Ridge, and Aurora. In 2002, Republican Beauprez won with a razor-thin margin of 121 votes. In 2004, Beauprez won narrowly again, but the district-almost evenly divided among Democrats, Republicans, and the unaffiliated-backed John Kerry for president.
Standing clear. Republican congressional candidate Rick O'Donnell, former state higher-education commissioner, has been trying to distance himself from the national GOP and establish an image of independence. On October 6, he told a forum in Wheat Ridge that if elected he would model himself on two liberal Democrats-former Rep. Pat Schroeder of Denver and former Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York. O'Donnell said he disagreed with them on issues but admired their work ethic, accessibility, and willingness to fight for their constituents.
For his part, Democratic candidate Perlmutter, a former state senator who leads by double digits in some polls, said O'Donnell was masking his conservatism because his party is so unpopular. But Perlmutter also felt the need to establish his own independence. He told U.S. News he won't be in lock step with national Democrats. Still, his message is strongly anti-GOP. A fiery critic of the Iraq war, he says the Republicans have gotten America bogged down in the Mideast and on many issues at home. More generally, Perlmutter said most Coloradans today reject the extremes in either party. "People in this state are, at a basic level, moderate, independent thinkers," he told U.S. News.
But neither candidate should rest easy. After the Wheat Ridge forum, a waiter at the chicken-and-pasta luncheon was asked his impression of the candidates. He preferred not to give his name but admitted he hadn't paid much attention to what O'Donnell and Perlmutter were saying because he had been too busy serving food and clearing dishes. He will make his decision later. Like many other westerners, he said he usually votes Republican but is open to the other side this year.
This story appears in the October 23, 2006 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.