A New Map Out West
The GOP has ruled the Rockies, but demographics give Democrats new hope
AURORA, COLO.-Sipping hot tea from ceramic cups, Alex and Mirlin Rohr and their friends Betty Williams and Ray Hanson looked up politely when a smiling stranger approached their table at the Golden Shanghai Restaurant. It was Ed Perlmutter, Democratic candidate for Congress in suburban Denver's Seventh House District, trolling for votes amid trays of egg rolls. The affable lawyer apologized for interrupting, then proceeded to give a brief spiel about the need for a "new direction" in Washington.
Perlmutter's message of change and independence is a common one among Democratic candidates out west these days. After years of conservative dominance, this region of majestic mountains, endless plains, and sprawling suburbs seems to be moving to the pragmatic middle. And the longtime "out" party sees an opportunity not only to score big wins on November 7 but also to redefine the battlegrounds for the 2008 presidential race.
There's plenty of work left to do. Back at the Golden Shanghai, the Rohrs, both 61, said the biggest issue by far is illegal immigration. Alex, an accountant, said many illegals will simply have to be deported. The husband and wife are independents who usually vote Republican, and they plan to do so again this year. Williams, 77, a retired rancher, feels no allegiance to either party and said the biggest issue is healthcare. Hanson, 78, a former engineer who said he is nonpartisan, is most concerned about the war in Iraq. He vehemently argued that America's recent military conflicts, all the way back to Korea, have wasted billions of dollars and cost countless lives-and "haven't accomplished anything." He and Williams seem to be likely Democratic voters.
Demographics. With the Democrats trying to pick up 15 seats to take control of the House and six in the Senate, they are looking to the West, where a half-dozen House races and the Montana Senate race could help determine the new lineup. Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada are the main flash points. All four states have undergone seismic demographic and political shifts. From 2001 to 2005, Nevada was the nation's fastest-growing state. Arizona was second, Colorado eighth, and New Mexico 16th.
Many of the newcomers are Latinos; they tend to be conservative on social issues such as abortion and school prayer but liberal on economic matters, such as the need for government spending on healthcare and education. This has, on balance, helped the Democrats, but the Hispanic turnout remains a big question mark for November 7.
Overall, service and professional jobs are multiplying throughout the West as farming and mining employment, economic staples for years, have declined. Demand is growing for public services such as mass transit, healthcare, and schools, making the Democrats' pro-government image more appealing and the GOP calls for lower taxes and less government more problematic. Increasingly pragmatic voters also appear less interested in the "values issues" that have tended to help Republicans, such as same-sex marriage, abortion, and gun control.
Add it all up, and Democrats hope a new day is dawning. "We intend to contest Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada as a unit next time in the presidential because we think we can win there," Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean told U.S. News. Dean's theory is that, with a combined total of 29 electoral votes, those four states would make it unnecessary for the Democrats to win Florida, with 27 electoral votes, which they have lost in the last two down-to-the-wire presidential elections. "Bill Clinton won every single one of those states at one time or another," Dean added.
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