Down to the Wire
Don't look now, but suddenly a new batch of GOP seats in the House is up for grabs
With California's 11th District race now in the "competitive" column, Democrats are facing tough decisions about where to spend their money. "There's not an unlimited amount," Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean tells U.S. News. "And instead of focusing money on fewer races, you're focusing more money on more races." Much of the $630,000 of TV ad time the DCCC had reserved for Democratic challenger Angie Paccione in Colorado's Fourth District was canceled last week, even though the DCCC recently enrolled Paccione in its "Red to Blue" program for the most competitive candidates; a Denver Post poll last week showed a 10-point lead for incumbent Rep. Marilyn Musgrave.
At the same time, more competitive races have forced Republicans to pull money from districts where they hoped to unseat Democratic incumbents. "Because we've looked beyond the races in play to say 'What's the next layer?' ... we are in a position ... to handle the risk of the increasing number of seats," Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman tells U.S. News, "and also ... to say, "Now this seat's safe-we don't have to worry about it.'" Asked to name a Republican-held seat that has gone from competitive to safe, Mehlman declined. But the RNC chair warned incumbents of the difficult political environment early in the election cycle, and many, including Lewis, amassed $1 million-plus war chests.
Indeed, marginal districts like Kentucky's Second are still uphill fights for Democrats, even as they have tightened. "Weaver looks good on paper, but Lewis hasn't done anything particularly wrong," says the Rothenberg Report's Nathan Gonzales. "That's what Democrats are wrestling with nationwide." After Lewis fielded the initial call about Iraq last week in his phone-in town hall meeting, none of the other callers asked him about the war-or about Foley. Most urged him to crack down on illegal immigration, to support the constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, and thanked him for helping them secure disability or veteran benefits. They were asking, in other words, for more of the same.
With Danielle Knight and Will Sullivan
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