The Battle For Baghdad
For U.S. Troops, this may be the last chance to head off a full-blown civil war. There's a plan, but will it work?
Police purge. The argument is that all efforts should be bent on improving Iraqis' ability to take charge of their own security. The Iraqi Army has been given the lead role in about half of the country (map, Page 53). There is a strong view within the U.S. officer corps here that Iraqis must be put in charge so that they will take ownership of the country's problems. But others lower down on the totem pole caution that the handover to Iraqis should not be accelerated much faster. And many commanders caution that U.S. advisers will be needed for years to reinforce the training and professionalization of the forces.
There is also a growing consensus that Iraqi forces will have to be bigger to do the job of securing Iraq. The military and police now number 298,000 and will reach 325,000 by year's end. The Maliki government plans to seek more. One yardstick calls for three Iraqi soldiers to replace every American one, which would mean 390,000. Some Vietnam comparisons suggest that as many as 500,000 are needed. In any case, just to meet the current goal, new recruits are needed to replace roughly 18,000 who have resigned or been wounded or killed.
The picture in the Iraqi police forces is far less positive. Overseen by the Interior Ministry, these forces outnumber the Army by about 40,000. Starting this month, the Iraqi National Police are being pulled from duty to undergo a much-needed overhaul. A senior coalition official says that five to six of the 26 police battalion commanders have been implicated in sectarian or criminal violence or both and should be purged and, perhaps, prosecuted. Unlike the Army, where efforts have been made to balance the ethnic mix to reflect the population, the National Police is still 75 percent Shiite, although that is down from 92 percent. In recognition of the need for greater mentoring, the police advisory teams are being increased to 200 from 158. Another very serious problem are 150,000 armed guards assigned to various ministries, who officials say are committing many of the crimes and killings. The Interior Ministry proposes taking control of them and having the United States purge and retrain them, but this will require Iraqi legislative approval.
Beefing up U.S. advisory teams could also make them less vulnerable. They will be increasingly exposed as U.S. forces consolidate onto 50 bases by year's end. That means that resupply lines for outlying advisory teams will be longer, quick-reaction forces will be farther away, and the medical evacuation may be more difficult.
President Bush has said on many occasions that he will heed Casey's advice on when and how fast to draw down U.S. troops. Backing away from earlier hints of a drawdown this year, Casey now wants to see "significant" improvement in the levels of violence by Ramadan, in late October. That also happens to be the eve of the U.S. congressional midterm elections.Despite adverse polls, the administration continues to argue for "staying the course" on Iraq, and Casey's spokesman argues against a rush to judgment. "Our presence has been there for three years, but this government has been in place for two months," says Caldwell. The new Baghdad security effort, he explains, will be a "rolling campaign," and the hope is that success in one area will have a positive effect on the other more difficult places like Sadr City.
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