Nuclear Drive
As Iran defies the United Nations, Washington seeks support for sanctions
Stirring the pot. Iran seems to be acting accordingly. In the Pentagon's most direct allegation to date, Brig. Gen. Michael Barbero said last week, "it's irrefutable that Iran is responsible for training, funding, and equipping" Shiite insurgent groups in Iraq. In recent days, Iran has also test-fired missiles and barred international inspectors from one of its main nuclear sites, at Natanz. Iranian hard-liners are arguing that defiance on the nuclear issue is forcing the West to sweeten its offers. In Tehran, some officials have suggested that U.N. penalties would prompt an effort to conceal nuclear work that, until now, has been open to inspections. And the government has been preparing for sanctions, even drafting an alternative budget that would cut spending on subsidies. "The general view is, 'We can survive. We can take it,'" says Vakil, who recently conducted research in Iran.
That confidence is fueled by the likelihood that the Security Council is unwilling to go where sanctions would really bite: Iran's oil and natural gas exports. Oil prices above $70 per barrel and scant excess production capacity mean that an embargo on purchasing Iranian oil is not being seriously entertained. On the contrary, some Iranian officials have suggested selectively withholding oil from global markets to shock western countries into easing up, even though it would deprive Iran of funds.
While the Iranians brace for possible penalties, they may also be experiencing setbacks in uranium enrichment. Iran had said that it would have a second and third "cascade" of 164 linked, fast-spinning centrifuges running by midsummer. "The absence of any announcement or news about the installation and operation of those centrifuges suggests that they have run into technical problems," says Mark Fitzpatrick, a former U.S. diplomat now with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
There is little reason to doubt that Iran can, with time, overcome such problems and produce nuclear fuel. Iran's decision, the supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated last week, is to "continue its path powerfully."
Set against that kind of determination, tempering Iran's nuclear drive will be a long and dodgy quest. "Success is far from guaranteed, but of all the options available to us, the diplomatic route is the most likely to succeed," reasons a senior European diplomat. The question is how long that will be the case.
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