Nuclear Drive
As Iran defies the United Nations, Washington seeks support for sanctions
They didn't say "Yes," but they didn't exactly say "No" either. The long-awaited response last week by Iranian leaders to an incentive-laced package intended to lure the Islamic Republic away from making nuclear fuel left the countries offering it frustrated once again-and searching for a way to move forward together in the face of Iran's deft maneuvering.
The complicated 21-page reply had diplomats from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China all puzzling over their translated texts, sifting through what one called an occasionally contradictory set of comments and queries. Iran pitched its response as comprehensive, as a gateway to immediate, "serious" talks. But it was clear that Tehran had chosen to reject the core demand of the six powers, rendered legally binding by a United Nations Security Council resolution: to halt enrichment of uranium by a deadline of August 31. "Iran wants to start negotiating on the carrots, not the sticks," says a senior U.S. official.
Sanctions delay. That approach is already sparking moves by the Bush administration and some European governments to win Security Council approval for sanctions. "We're embarking on the long road" of getting sanctions, says the U.S. official. Those could include banning the sale to Iran of nuclear gear and dual-use technology, a visa ban on travel by Iranian officials, and a freeze on some financial accounts.
But gaining U.N. approval will likely prove trying, even though U.S. officials have said that Russia and China already agree in principle to support some sanctions if Iran carries on uranium enrichment past the end of August. The Russian and Chinese acceptance followed concessions by President Bush, including a willingness to negotiate directly with Iran over the nuclear standoff and to support such enticements as the provision of proliferation-resistant light-water nuclear reactors, trade, the lifting of U.S. barriers to airliner sales, and security talks. All are to be conditioned on diverting Iran from uranium enrichment and the reprocessing of plutonium-paths either to nuclear bombs or, as Tehran steadfastly claims, to nuclear energy.
While the United States, Britain, France, and Germany described Iran's reply as falling short of the mark, Russia and China pleaded for patience and for exploring "nuance" in the Iranian missive. Russia's defense minister suggested that "the question is not so serious at the moment" to consider sanctions. Both nations maintain sizable trade and energy deals with Iran and fear another U.S.-led war in the Mideast. And with hints that Iran might yet consider a suspension of enrichment during talks-but not as a precondition to them-Russia and China may be inclined to dwell on any alternatives to immediate sanctions. "It's a cardinal principle of Iranian diplomacy that you try to divide those against you," says a senior European official.
Even so, Washington and its European allies strained to show that they were treating the Iranian counteroffer seriously, not dismissing it out of hand. With antiwestern sentiments boiling in the Islamic world over Israel's war with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the U.S. battles in Iraq, diplomats know that deeper tensions with Iran will agitate the region further. The ability of Hezbollah, backed by Iranian money and weapons, to withstand weeks of Israeli assault seems to have emboldened Iran, already cushioned by high oil prices. Hezbollah, said Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has "hoisted the banner of victory." Adds Sanam Vakil, an Iran specialist at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, "Iran is the biggest winner of this war."
advertisement
