Strife Amid the Ruins
Hezbollah, for now, lays down its weapons and tries to placate the neighbors
Residents are returning to their towns and villages expecting Hezbollah to take the lead in rebuilding. "[Nasrallah] said he would [rebuild] in his first speech of the war, so it's an issue of credibility," says Jamil Mroue, editor-in-chief and publisher of Beirut's Daily Star newspaper. "And when the guns fell silent, he delivered. But he also has to end any discussions emanating from the destruction of south Lebanon over who caused this disaster. This is going to create tensions he needs to dampen down."
But by circumventing the central government even as it attempts to exert military control over south Lebanon for the first time since 1969, Hezbollah has reinforced the perception that Beirut cannot govern the entire nation. And many Lebanese scoff at the idea that U.N. Resolution 1701, which produced the cease-fire, will succeed in ending Hezbollah's state within a state. "It's too early to address this state question because there is no Lebanese state for Hezbollah to operate their own state within," says Mroue. "At best, 1701 offers a kind of opportunity for the state to develop."
This central weakness of the Lebanese government stems from its religious divisions and a political system that allocates power between Sunni, Christian, Druze, and Shiite communities. The members of each religious group rely on their political leaders for jobs and patronage. So instead of governing, Lebanese politics tends to resemble Mafia families divvying up political and economic spoils and distributing them among those most loyal. Each group also tends to look outside of Lebanon for support: Christians to Europe and America, the Sunnis to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, and the Shiites to Iran. And this can further weaken the country as some groups pursue agendas more in line with external patrons than Lebanon's needs, as Hezbollah is often accused of doing for Iran and Syria.
Tough neighborhood. One powerful Lebanese banker, the kind of man who does not allow his name to appear in print, says that Lebanon's place as the most westernized and liberal Arab country stems from this central weakness but also leaves the country vulnerable to exploitation by internal and external powers. "So as the rest of the region goes, so goes Lebanon," he says. "No peace with Iran, no peace in Israel-Palestine, then you will see no peace here."
Furthermore, it would take a far more powerful central government than now seems possible to step up to the immediate challenges: deploying the Lebanese Army to the southern border, dealing with billions of dollars in reconstruction, and possibly facing down a Hezbollah that currently wields more regional political and military power than the central government in Beirut.
There are signs that, if anything, the historic religious fissures are widening. Take the reconstruction effort, for instance. "The parliament is already dividing up the reconstruction money to suit themselves," says Patrick Haenni, a Lebanon analyst for the International Crisis Group. "[Speaker Nabi] Berri is saying that all the aid has to be spent through the Council of the South, which he controls. The [Sunni] Hariri Foundation says the government is too weak to deal with on this, so they should administer it themselves. The Maronite [Christians] are trying to go their own way as well. And Hezbollah just says, 'What government? Where is the government? We'll do it ourselves' - with Iran's money."
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