Show-Me State Showdown
SEDALIA, MO.-if it's a hot, mid-August day with corn dogs on every corner, it must be the Missouri State Fair. And if it's the state fair with a midterm election in the offing, politicians will roam. And they did-especially at the Governor's Ham Breakfast early one morning last week. It was a big-tent kind of event-in which incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent mingled alongside his Democratic opponent, Claire McCaskill. No debates. No speeches. Just applause-that is, for the Grand Champion Ham, fetching a fat $10K for the 4-H Club.
Pork projects aside, there's something else going on in Missouri: a dead-heat brawl that could determine control of the Senate. And it's a race that has become emblematic of both the GOP and Democratic strategies: As the Democrats try to nationalize the election as a referendum on an unpopular president and war, Republicans try to localize it, bragging about their achievements for voters while declaring independence from the White House.
The plans are obvious, but tricky to execute-especially in a state as notoriously independent as Missouri. Two years ago, George W. Bush beat John Kerry statewide by 7 points, and there's a Republican governor and two GOP senators. Yet now Bush's approval rating sits at 40 percent, and the GOP governor is only a hair more popular. Then there's this: Fifty-four percent of the Missourians say the war in Iraq was a mistake; 77 percent of the state's self-described independent voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction. Not exactly a Republican-incumbent-friendly environment.
Jim Talent knows it. He's not only distancing himself from the president; he disowns Washington entirely. "I have been frustrated with the establishments of both parties," he told me, making the case that "the administration has made mistakes" in a whole variety of areas-from the prosecution of the war to farm policy. "There's no question that people want change in Washington. I believe in change." That is a nuanced argument coming from a GOP senator-leading inevitably to the judge-me-by-my-record-and-not-by-my-party argument. "This election will be about two people," says Talent. "And the voters will make judgments about ... who speaks to them."
Democrat McCaskill, meantime, sounds like President Bush is her statewide opponent. She's linking Talent to Bush with Krazy Glue, never missing an opportunity to say something like "The White House ought to just take a room in Missouri, they're here so often helping Jim Talent." Or "He's [Talent] been in lockstep with this administration." Message: He's the guy with Bush.
Reverse play. The Democratic plan to tether the GOP candidate to Bush could work. But there's one more component that holds the key: voter turnout. The Democrats'calculation is that their voters are the ones truly motivated-because of anti-Bush sentiment, antiwar sentiment, or just general malaise. In Missouri, Democrats also hope that two ballot initiatives-for funding for embryonic stem cell research and raising the minimum wage-will bring their voters out. And McCaskill is taking a page from the GOP playbook, campaigning in rural parts of the state.
But will the Democratic intensity be able to trump Republican skill at turning out voters? For years, the GOP has been fine-tuning its Karl Rovian technology of "microtargeting"-the ability to find would-be GOP voters, register them, and get them to the polls. Former Democratic leader Dick Gephardt-who was at the receiving end of their efforts when the GOP took control of the House in 1994-says the Democrats are playing catch-up. "A voter who's not going to vote doesn't make a difference," he told me. "The genius of the Republicans is that they know you've got to figure out who you can actually get to come out and vote. That's what we're beginning to do."
When Gephardt and company lost control of the House, he says, they didn't see it coming. "I thought we were going to lose some seats, but I had no idea it would be 52 seats," recalls the former Missouri congressman. This time, it's the Democrats on the attack-only the Republicans see it coming. "They're more aware of the danger," Gephardt says. "But I don't see any evidence that they're going to be able to do anything about it."
As the voters in Missouri might say: Show me.
This story appears in the August 28, 2006 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.