Mideast crisis--Blog from Jerusalem
The Israeli generals want another seven to 10 days to "soften up" Hezbollah, to weaken the organization's military capabilities so that another force--international, NATO, Arab, or be what it may--can be put in southern Lebanon to prevent future attacks on Israel. Yes, they said that last week, but Hezbollah is putting up a strong resistance.
Who exactly would be in that force is the $10,000 question. NATO is spread thin around the world. The Arabs would not want to do it; they would not want to be seen defending Israel from what many Arabs perceive as a legitimate resistance movement.
Whether an international force would be able to overpower even a considerably weakened Hezbollah is the $100,000 question. The answer? Hmmm, not for long. Hezbollah will very likely have many more young volunteers join its ranks in the future as a reaction to what they and their families suffered from Israel's military attacks targeting their villages and neighborhoods. Moreover, if Syria does not get some quid pro quo, it won't have an incentive to stop the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah from Iran.
So the $1 million question remains: Is there anything that Hezbollah would find acceptable to give up its arms and go totally political? I cannot answer that question. But some say that changing the Lebanese democracy to "one man, one vote" (and ending the current voting system allocating power according to religious sect) would do it. But that would most likely mean that Hezbollah would become the ruling power of Muslim-majority Lebanon. And that is not exactly what Rice and President George Bush had in mind when they called for democracy in the Middle East.
July 21
JERUSALEM — Israel knows it cannot wipe out Hezbollah, but it does plan to change the military situation on the ground by weakening the militant organization through aerial attacks and by creating a buffer zone extending a half mile into Lebanese territory. The buffer zone will be cleared of everything, "even trees," a security official told me. When I asked him what would happen to any villages that may be in this area, he answered, "Everything will be flattened."
Knowing that it's only a matter of time until a diplomatic solution is reached, the Israeli Army is working fast to try to eliminate as many rocket launchers as it can inside of Lebanon through aerial and naval strikes. Both Defense Minister Amir Peretz and the military brass want to avoid a massive ground invasion, which would cost many soldiers' lives. Remember that in the first hours after two soldiers were captured and eight were killed, the Army sent in a tank to chase the captors. The tank did not get far inside Lebanon before it drove over a road mine, killing four Israeli soldiers. It took two days before the military could retrieve the bodies, as Hezbollah fighters fired on anyone who came near.
Israeli officials know that they can't prevent Hezbollah from firing on Israel except through an agreement, but they also want to prevent Hezbollah from crossing the international border and capturing soldiers in the future. The solution, the generals concluded, is to create a buffer zone in Lebanon a half-mile deep that is "clean of Hezbollah." In other words, a cleared area in which Hezbollah would be unable to re-establish guerrilla posts along the border. Israel would not have to physically occupy the zone with military installations, since it would be able to keep it clear through artillery power from the Israeli side of the border and through air power.
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