Q&A: What happens after Fidel is gone?
The announcement on July 31 that Fidel Castro, Cuba's maximal leader for the past 47 years, had temporarily relinquished power to his brother Raúl after undergoing surgery for intestinal bleeding has unleashed a torrent of gossip and analysis. Many are already speculating that, if still alive, the 79-year-old dictator is launching the transition to the next regime. U.S. News spoke with Brian Latell, a former CIA analyst and author of After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castro's Regime and Cuba's Next Leader.
Do you think Castro is signaling that he is nearly ready to step down?
I think it even goes beyond that. I think that Raúl Castro is now the senior partner in the Cuban leadership. The transfer of power actually began in early June, and now it's official. I have my doubts that Fidel is ever going to get back in the saddle and run things again the way he did. Even if he survives, I think his condition is going to be so weakened that Raúl is going to be running the show.
Who is Raúl Castro, and how likely is it that he will retain the reins of power if Fidel abdicates or dies?
As I show in After Fidel, the first biography ever written about Raúl Castro, he lacks many of Fidel's leadership qualities. He doesn't do speeches very well, doesn't like to give speeches, doesn't have the same kind of direct contact with the Cuban people that Fidel has always had. He is not an intellectual like Fidel. He likes to stay in the background. But he has many other qualities that compensate. He is very, very smart, and he is powerful. He is the regime's best organizer, an experienced manager and organization man. He will run Cuba very differently, with a more collective leadership, sharing responsibilities--and titles--with other civilian and military officials. He won't be the constant center of attention, the single source of authority that Fidel has been all these years.
But I think it is likely that Raúl will retain power. He has the support of the three most powerful institutions in Cuba. He runs the military, the security and intelligence services, and is now the dominant force in the Communist Party.
There is also a fourth source of leverage. He controls, through military officers, a very large percentage of the Cuban economy, including a large part of the tourist industry. Once Raúl has gotten his feet wet in the new leadership capacity, I think he is going to want to pursue the China model, continuing to let the military be engaged in business but also allowing more private entrepreneurship and individual enterprise.
If Raúl Castro's rule is only transitional, what type of regime is likely to emerge in the longer term?
The most important variable is how long Raúl might be able to stay in power. He's 75; we don't know much about his health, but he drinks too much. We can't say how long he'll be there, but we can say this: There is no third man in the line of succession. That's another sign of the Castro brothers' political savvy. They've never wanted to have another person looming right behind them as a potential successor. They thought it would be threatening to them.
How might the United States try to influence a future Cuba?
The Bush administration has plans in place. They just issued a new "Assistance for a Free Cuba" report, and the biggest emphasis is to help to promote democratic opportunity, to help promote an independent civil society that can form the basis of support for democracy later on when it's possible. The United States is encouraging the free library movement so that people can have access to all the banned books. It's encouraging free journalists and human-rights activists--all of whom are peaceful advocates, Martin Luthers and Gandhis and not flamethrowers. Any more dramatic support than this would be counterproductive.
If this is indeed the end of Castro's rule, how would you assess his accomplishments and legacies?
He has been a titanic historical figure, one of the most momentous figures in the history of all of Latin America. He took the world to the brink of nuclear catastrophe in 1962, he defied and goaded the United States through the course of 10 administrations, and he is still there almost 18 years after the end of the Soviet Union. But the revolution and his government are now easily recognizable as a vast failure. The economy is in shambles; the infrastructure of the country has deteriorated; there are no personal freedoms allowed, whether in the economy or in any area of expression. And he just refuses to release his iron grip. The Cuban people overwhelmingly want change, and he is refusing to give them change. He's become eccentric and intransigent in his old age.
Today, Venezuela's Hugo Chávez is his most loyal emulator and disciple. But there aren't any others in the region. Fidel still attracts a great deal of attention--curious attention--throughout Latin America. But more and more he's become a curiosity, not a model that people any longer consider to be a viable one.
What about his two much-heralded achievements in Cuba, healthcare and mass literacy?
I think they've become rhetorical Potemkin villages, especially healthcare. In fact, there's been a very serious decline in the quality and availability of healthcare in recent years.
How will Castro stand among the leaders of the 20th century?
Love him or hate him, he is going to be among a small group of the most memorable leaders of the last 100 years.
Would you offer a few crystal-ball predictions about the future of U.S.-Cuba relations after Castro?
They can only get better. And I think they will. There is already a secret consensus among the leadership, and certainly among the people, that Cuba needs to go beyond the fidelista strictures, and having better relations with the United States will be part of that.