Q&A: What happens after Fidel is gone?
How might the United States try to influence a future Cuba?
The Bush administration has plans in place. They just issued a new "Assistance for a Free Cuba" report, and the biggest emphasis is to help to promote democratic opportunity, to help promote an independent civil society that can form the basis of support for democracy later on when it's possible. The United States is encouraging the free library movement so that people can have access to all the banned books. It's encouraging free journalists and human-rights activists--all of whom are peaceful advocates, Martin Luthers and Gandhis and not flamethrowers. Any more dramatic support than this would be counterproductive.
If this is indeed the end of Castro's rule, how would you assess his accomplishments and legacies?
He has been a titanic historical figure, one of the most momentous figures in the history of all of Latin America. He took the world to the brink of nuclear catastrophe in 1962, he defied and goaded the United States through the course of 10 administrations, and he is still there almost 18 years after the end of the Soviet Union. But the revolution and his government are now easily recognizable as a vast failure. The economy is in shambles; the infrastructure of the country has deteriorated; there are no personal freedoms allowed, whether in the economy or in any area of expression. And he just refuses to release his iron grip. The Cuban people overwhelmingly want change, and he is refusing to give them change. He's become eccentric and intransigent in his old age.
Today, Venezuela's Hugo Chávez is his most loyal emulator and disciple. But there aren't any others in the region. Fidel still attracts a great deal of attention--curious attention--throughout Latin America. But more and more he's become a curiosity, not a model that people any longer consider to be a viable one.
What about his two much-heralded achievements in Cuba, healthcare and mass literacy?
I think they've become rhetorical Potemkin villages, especially healthcare. In fact, there's been a very serious decline in the quality and availability of healthcare in recent years.
How will Castro stand among the leaders of the 20th century?
Love him or hate him, he is going to be among a small group of the most memorable leaders of the last 100 years.
Would you offer a few crystal-ball predictions about the future of U.S.-Cuba relations after Castro?
They can only get better. And I think they will. There is already a secret consensus among the leadership, and certainly among the people, that Cuba needs to go beyond the fidelista strictures, and having better relations with the United States will be part of that.
advertisement
