Mideast crisis - Blog from Jerusalem
July 24
JERUSALEM-Thirteen days into the Lebanese-Israeli conflict (or is it war?), the United States finally decided to do something about it. Or did it? U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice popped into Beirut for a surprise visit today and then over to Jerusalem before continuing to other parts of the world.
But is she just paying a courtesy visit, or is she working toward the cease-fire everyone in the world (except for the two parties actually engaged in shooting at each other) has called for?
The answer is likely to be found in her statement made en route from Washington to Beirut. She said the United States believes "a cease-fire is urgent"--but she added that the United States will work toward brokering a cease-fire only if it is "sustainable."
What makes a truce sustainable? A Lebanese source told Reuters that Rice said that Hezbollah must unconditionally return the two Israeli soldiers it captured and pull back from the border. It's not clear to me if she realizes that is not likely to happen and is saying it to gain more time or because she honestly doesn't understand how things work in the Arab world. Hezbollah would most likely kill the two soldiers rather than be forced to give them up without getting something in return and saving face. Lebanon's Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, of course, knows that and has called for a broad political deal that would include the release of Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails and the Israeli withdrawal from the disputed speck of land known as Shebaa Farms so that he can convince Hezbollah that its goals have been achieved and it is no longer needed in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah still claims Shebaa Farms for Lebanon, though the United Nations does not.
What is most likely is that Rice knows that her conditions are impossible and she is gaining time in order to help Israel create a situation on the ground that Israel and the United States believe will make a "sustainable truce" possible: i.e., cripple Hezbollah so that it can be replaced.
The Israeli generals want another seven to 10 days to "soften up" Hezbollah, to weaken the organization's military capabilities so that another force--international, NATO, Arab, or be what it may--can be put in southern Lebanon to prevent future attacks on Israel. Yes, they said that last week, but Hezbollah is putting up a strong resistance.
Who exactly would be in that force is the $10,000 question. NATO is spread thin around the world. The Arabs would not want to do it; they would not want to be seen defending Israel from what many Arabs perceive as a legitimate resistance movement.
Whether an international force would be able to overpower even a considerably weakened Hezbollah is the $100,000 question. The answer? Hmmm, not for long. Hezbollah will very likely have many more young volunteers join its ranks in the future as a reaction to what they and their families suffered from Israel's military attacks targeting their villages and neighborhoods. Moreover, if Syria does not get some quid pro quo, it won't have an incentive to stop the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah from Iran.
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