Up in Flames
With Hezbollah's rockets still falling, Israel is not nearly finished with its efforts to remove the threat
Hezbollah leaders remain confident in public, but many Lebanese are blaming them for the crisis. "They declared war without notifying the Lebanese people, without our permission," says Elie Khoury, a Lebanese Christian in Beirut. "Today we see the result--[Israel wants] to destroy Lebanon unless we disarm Hezbollah. So we must disarm Hezbollah." Still, even though there is a U.N. resolution calling for the group's disarmament, the topic is very sensitive in Lebanese political circles. After an Italian newspaper quoted Lebanon's prime minister, Fuad Saniora, as saying, "The entire world must help us disarm Hezbollah," his office promptly insisted that he was misquoted.
A drawn-out crisis could recast the entire Lebanese political scene. The powerful Israeli assault could prompt many to rally around the only force willing to take on the Israelis, but growing numbers of Lebanese could also decide that Hezbollah is acting in Iran's, not Lebanon's, interests. "When there's no water, no food, no power, the Sunnis and Christians will turn on Hezbollah, which they don't even like anyway," says Hassan, the young Lebanese Sunni. Still, all it might take to reverse that is one or two particularly deadly Israeli attacks on Lebanese civilians--intentional or not.
Syria. Even before this latest outbreak, Syria was under a cloud of suspicion in Lebanon for its suspected involvement in the assassination of Lebanon's previous prime minister, Rafik Hariri, in February 2005. President Bush has blamed Syria for its support of Hezbollah. "Syria is trying to get back into Lebanon, it looks like to me," he said last week.
Damascus denies Bush's charge and says it wields no control over Hezbollah. "Whether they like or not, Hezbollah is an independent, autonomous organization," says Imad Moustapha, Syria's ambassador in Washington. There is some truth to this. While Damascus was a key Hezbollah patron when Syria had troops in Lebanon, it is now more of a patron and facilitator. Syria still has some sway over the group, however, and could influence Hezbollah and its chief backer, Iran.
Already, Syria appears to be trying to set itself up as a peacemaker, calling for a cease-fire. Hezbollah is unlikely to agree to such a move without pressure from its sponsors. But some experts warn against enlisting Syria's help because it could reverse the gains Lebanon made after Syria removed its troops from the country last year, after nearly three decades. "To go to Damascus now would be to betray the Lebanese people," says Martin Indyk, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel who is now at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. "They would in effect have our invitation to meddle in Lebanese politics, with the rationale that they are doing our bidding in dealing with Hezbollah."
Arab Gulf states. Perhaps the most surprising reaction to the fighting has been from several key Sunni Arab regimes. In a remarkable first in Arab politics, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan have been openly critical of other Arabs engaged in active conflict with Israel. "We see what happened in Lebanon as an adventure, and we're afraid that everybody is going to pay the price," says a senior Egyptian diplomat. These Arab regimes are still blasting Israel, but their tough words for Hezbollah suggest a new level of concern about its motives, and particularly its backers in Tehran (story, Page 34). Still, it's not clear how long these governments can maintain their criticism of Hezbollah. The group remains popular on the Arab street and might only gain deeper support if the conflict drags on.
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