An Impulse for Intrigue
Iran has really big plans. And lots of folks have really big headaches
Growing Iranian clout with Israel's adversaries in Gaza, the West Bank, and in Lebanon explains part of the ferocity of Israel's reaction. "It's a race against time to stop Iranian influence," explains an Israeli official. The country's prime minister, Ehud Olmert, is charging that Hezbollah coordinated its raid with Iran, which stands to gain by distracting attention from its nuclear dispute with the West. That standoff, it just so happens, has returned to the United Nations Security Council, which is preparing to issue a binding call on Iran to stop making nuclear fuel. But Iran is vowing to continue building toward industrial-scale enrichment and says it won't formally reply to the western offer of incentives until August 22. The Lebanon crisis has given the nuclear question fresh urgency. "How much worse would it be," a senior U.S. official wondered last week, "if Iran had a bomb?"
Signals. The alleged Iranian connection to the Hezbollah raid is also seen as part of an ominous signaling game directed at Israel and the United States: Attack our nuclear facilities, and you'll reap an array of punishing reprisals. This is known, in the argot of the military, as asymmetrical warfare--countering a stronger adversary by terrorism, oil embargoes, and other unconventional tactics. Martin Indyk, a former senior U.S. diplomat now with the Brookings Institution, says both Syria and Iran "would like to use this crisis to establish in the minds of the Bush administration that they are the address not only for turning up the heat but also turning off the heat."
Iran's activities, meanwhile, are stirring concern among predominantly Sunni Muslim Arab leaders, who see Hezbollah as one agent of expanding Iranian influence. Jordan's King Abdullah II has warned of a burgeoning Shiite "crescent" that includes Iran and Iraq and carries over into Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern Province. But Iran also reaches across the sectarian divide with its support for Sunni Islamist Hamas, suggesting that it may be willing to stoke radical challenges to the leaders of moderate Arab nations.
Fissures. Fear of Iranian meddling has driven a remarkable split in the Arab world, where Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia have condemned Hezbollah for "adventurism" in its initial attack (and, of course, Israel for its military campaign). "There is a foreign element playing in our backyard," warns an Arab diplomat. A senior European official describes the mood of Arab governments on Iran: "They are scared to death. Discreetly, they say, 'Do something.'"
While applauding efforts to repel Iranian influence and "isolate" Iran, as President Bush puts it, the administration has been hobbled by policy differences. Hawks favoring regime change have repeatedly bumped up against those preferring engagement. "The usual cacophony of voices" is how one senior official describes it wearily. The engagers, under Rice, have gained the upper hand so far in the second term. U.S. policy has been softened to offer direct talks with Iran if it can show that it has stopped cooking up enriched uranium. The watchword now is "patience" in pursuing diplomacy.
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