An Impulse for Intrigue
Iran has really big plans. And lots of folks have really big headaches
A coup d'état, and then a pro-American shah. Revolution, and chants of "Death to America." Blindfolded hostages held for an agonizing 444 days. A symbolic offering of a Bible, pistols, and a cake--come to naught. And, always, the bearded, berobed mullahs thundering against the "Great Satan." The scenes are seared into America's collective memory, snapshots from what is perhaps its most irrepressibly malign foreign relationship. That, of course, would be the one with Iran.
New images came flooding in last week, as Hezbollah guerrillas rained rockets down on Israel, drawing a fierce Israeli bombardment in reply. They added a new dimension to the old picture, one of an Iran with the power and the will to wreak havoc far from its borders. U.S. officials and many analysts see an Iranian hand at work in Hezbollah's new fractiousness. Exactly how much is a point of debate, but not in the White House or in Washington's other power centers. "Part of those terrorist attacks," President Bush suggested last week, "are inspired by nation states, like Syria and Iran." Iranian officials deny involvement in the Hezbollah raid that resulted in the abduction of two Israeli soldiers, but they're also happy stirring the pot, with Iran's parliamentary chief warning ominously that "no part of Israel will be safe."
Whatever the precise facts of Iran's role in this latest crisis--at a minimum, both arming and financing Hezbollah--its rapid escalation is a sign that the Middle East has changed. And not simply because Lebanon has yet again been plunged into tumult. Iran is emerging as a true regional powerhouse, more ready than ever to flex its muscles. "Iran," says Fawaz Gerges, a leading Mideast scholar at Sarah Lawrence College in New York, "really is making a bid for regional supremacy." Gerges was no distant observer of the phenomenon last week; he was living it, temporarily trapped at his parents' home in Beirut with his three children as Israeli warplanes pressed the attack on Hezbollah.
Pivotal. The spasm of violence reinforced the Bush administration's conclusion that Iran is playing a pivotal role in the issues that will make or break the Middle East: nuclear weapons, terrorism, the stability of Iraq, democracy, and Israel's security. "They are all interrelated," says a senior administration official. "The nexus of it is the regime in Tehran."
That reasoning is prompting a range of responses in Washington. These include a diplomatic push to persuade Iran to shed its nuclear program, new efforts to promote democracy and beam uncensored information into the Islamic republic, and intensified intelligence gathering to shore up Washington's shaky understanding of events in Iran. The latter is a formidable challenge. "I don't think we've ever had a handle on the theocracy in Iran," says Dean McGrath, a former aide to Vice President Dick Cheney.
None of the efforts, so far, have dented Tehran's rogue status in the region. The Iran nuclear issue, a senior State Department official says, may be unresolved for "maybe years." Time seems to be on Iran's side. Says a senior Arab diplomat: "The Iranians are playing these cards very well. Iran's influence is increasing day after day."
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