Republicans hold on to the Duke's seat but show signs of weakness for the fall
Yesterday's election to replace ex-San Diego-area Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now serving an eight-year jail term after pleading guilty to bribery and tax-evasion charges, was supposed to be the clearest indication yet for how well the Democrats are poised to take back the House in November. With Republican Brian Bilbray beating Democrat Francine Busby 49.3 percent to 45.5 percent, the results suggest that Republicans, while faced with a tough political environment, are showing resiliency.
"National Democrats did not discover their shock wave in San Diego," said Rep. Tom Reynolds, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. "[They] must come to terms with the fact that momentum for the midterm elections will not materialize simply because they preordain it. ... The results in San Diego show that nothing has happened to alter the notion that House elections are about a choice between local personalities focused on local issues."
But reading the results as an unequivocal boost for Republican prospects in November would be a mistake. The National Republican Congressional Committee spent a whopping $4.5 million in the race, even though the district gives the GOP a 44 percent-to-30 percent registration edge. In the days before the election, voters received automated calls from President Bush, first lady Laura Bush, and Vice President Dick Cheney on Bilbray's behalf. Such an intense fundraising and organizational effort would be difficult for Republicans to replicate in the roughly three dozen congressional districts now held by Republicans but considered to be competitive this fall. Election analysts also point out that Bilbray got roughly 6 percentage points less than President Bush did in 2004.
Democrats in California's 50th, meanwhile, had what some say was a less-than-stellar candidate in Busby, a school board member who unleashed a firestorm of conservative criticism in the final days of the campaign by suggesting that illegal aliens should turn out to vote and help with her campaign. The district is close to the border with Mexico, and cracking down on illegal immigration was the cornerstone of Bilbray's bid.
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