One Fierce Nor'easter
A nasty Connecticut race has national significance
WESTPORT, CONN.--Republican Christopher Shays of Connecticut is convinced that come Election Day, his embattled party will lose its majority in the U.S. House and for good reason: It hasn't earned the right to keep it, he says.
But the 19-year congressman thinks at least one endangered Republican deserves to keep his job: himself. In a closely watched race, Shays has the fight of his political life--trying to convince familiar faces in the state's Fourth District that he is the GOP exception. In doing so, Shays, 60, is attempting a delicate dance--defending his resolute support for the Iraq war while distancing himself from his party and president. It will be a trick in a district where President Bush's approval rating is 22 percent and 64 percent say the war was a mistake.
"Iraq is going to be a central issue in this campaign and should be," Shays said last week, asserting that the Iraq effort is moving in the right direction despite mistakes. "I welcome every opportunity I get to talk about this noble struggle."
Targets. But in this wealthy, Democrat-leaning district north of New York City, Shays's war support and rematch with a potent opponent have made him one of the year's most vulnerable incumbents. Diane Farrell, an aggressive Democrat, came within 14,160 votes of knocking him off two years ago when the district went for John Kerry over Bush by nearly 19,000 votes. This time, she's getting big support from national strategists who have a bull's-eye on Shays and other moderate northeastern Republicans, including two others from the state, Nancy Johnson and Rob Simmons.
"I am a targeted race, but I don't think I'm a vulnerable race," Shays said. Though embracing the war issue is risky, he won't try to shift the discussion to topics such as abortion and the environment where his moderate bona fides are clear.
That calculation suits Farrell's game plan. The former Westport mayor has digested the poll numbers and thinks Shays should be "outraged" about the situation in Iraq. Farrell says she wants military leaders to give lawmakers a full on-the-ground accounting but does not favor immediate withdrawal or a deadline for pullout. She and her advisers, including Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel, who heads the Dems' House campaign efforts, have also fashioned a no-holds-barred attack on Shays's moderate reputation. In speeches, Farrell, 50, repeatedly links Shays with Bush and the Republican Congress and asserts that he's "out of touch" with the district.
"He continues to try to trade on a moniker of independence," Farrell said during an interview here last week at her campaign headquarters. She ticks off statistics showing Shays's votes for Bush's agenda--a high of 80 percent in 2002. Shays defends his support for the president on national security issues that year as consistent with his terrorism concerns that predated 9/11. Other analyses show Shays well within the moderate range; historically, he has voted more often with liberals than with conservatives.
The candidates know each other well from their previous bruising race, and there is no love lost. With money pouring in from the district and from national groups (Farrell expects to raise close to $3 million, Shays a bit less) and unregulated political interest groups targeting Shays with automated calls and negative telemarketing designed as polls, this one already has the odor of ugly.
"Chris doesn't want to be challenged--he bristles at criticism," Farrell says. "But his record is his record." Shays, who has been dismissive of Farrell, embraces that record. If he loses on the war issue, he says, he'll lose "fighting for something I believe in." Shays is gambling that there are enough others willing to believe that the troubled effort in Iraq will ultimately succeed.
This story appears in the May 29, 2006 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.