Border War
Immigration reform is fraught with political peril. when it's over, plenty of people are going to be angry
At the White House last month, the Southern Baptist Convention's top political officer, Richard Land, told President Bush he was offended by the number of illegal immigrants living with impunity in the United States. "When government does not enforce laws," he told Bush, "it's not doing what God ordained it to do." But Land, whose group counts 16 million followers, favors down-to-earth solutions. "Practically speaking," he says, "the government isn't going to deport 12 million immigrants." So Land told the president he supports Bush's proposed guest-worker program--and that he might even support putting illegal immigrants on a path to citizenship.
Land's take on immigration mirrors an uneasy national ambivalence. On one hand, Americans seem inclined to preserve their melting-pot heritage, but they also want law and order and harbor post-9/11 fears about national security. The debate is playing out on a variety of stages. Last month, hundreds of thousands marched in the streets in support of immigrants. And last week, the U.S. Senate intensified debate on a host of legislative proposals, ranging from get-tough enforcement measures to guest-worker programs that would put illegals on a path to citizenship. Where it ends up is anybody's guess. "You're in an election year, and this stirs passions on all sides," says Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback. "There's a real possibility we won't be able to pull anything together." The issue is so fraught with political and policy differences that even if Congress does pull something off, it is as likely to disappoint all parties involved as it is to satisfy any one of them.
There is wide agreement that the problem has spun out of control. The illegal immigrant population in the United States is now estimated at up to 12 million, a rise of more than 240 percent from 1990. It has spread from border states to places like North Carolina and New Jersey, each home to more than 350,000 illegal immigrants. "This issue has reached critical mass," says GOP pollster Whit Ayres. "People are demanding that something be done."
Late last year, the House of Representatives responded, passing a get-tough bill that would raise 700 miles of fence along the Mexican border. The House resisted President Bush's calls for a guest-worker program, which would provide temporary legal status. But a Senate bill, sent to the floor last week by the Judiciary Committee, appeared to take the "temporary" out of the president's plan, giving illegal immigrants a path to citizenship without having to return home. The bill would also more than double the number of U.S. agents along the Mexican border and create a "virtual wall" of cameras and aerial vehicles. A second Senate bill introduced by Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee--who is eyeing a 2008 White House bid--has no guest-worker provision. Both Senate bills may get a vote this week, along with a host of amendments. Key House Republicans have hinted they might be open to reconsidering a guest-worker proposal, but conservatives there would most likely resist.
A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll showed that about 60 percent of Americans oppose a guest-worker program. But polls also show that voters rank illegal immigration as a lower priority than the economy and the Iraq war. "You're not going to get a big plus for being friendly toward illegal immigrants or a big minus for being unfriendly," says Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
advertisement
