Mr. Outside's Inside Moves
Under normal circumstances, when the press characterizes a party that is (a) in disarray, (b) seeking an identity, or (c) without a message, it's usually the Democrats. After all, they have no unifying agenda, and, even if they did, they wouldn't rally around it. They're Democrats. This time, however, it's the Republicans who can't get their act together. With a president at 34 percent in the polls, an upcoming election with control of the Congress in play, and 2008 just a blink away (really), the GOP is moving into its post-Bush phase--and it's not pretty.
Unless you're Sen. John McCain. Suddenly, the issues are your issues: immigration reform, changing the ways of a corrupt Congress, national security, even the national debate on torture. It's an opportunity to befriend George W. Bush (on Iraq) and differ with George W. Bush (forcing him to accept a ban on torture). It's a way to appeal to the GOP's conservative base (by supporting a part of South Dakota's new antiabortion law) while appealing to moderate Democrats (cosponsoring, with Ted Kennedy, an immigration bill that provides a path to citizenship). While other presidential wannabes are flailing around to discover their beliefs, McCain is working his way toward the GOP nomination.
And while he's still not a card-carrying member of the Senate club, he's quietly playing an inside game, beefing up support with GOP pooh-bahs. "He's being very smart about this," says a senior White House adviser. "McCain learned his lessons well." Well enough to see that the GOP doesn't like surprises and does like establishment candidates. In 2000,McCain was a loner, railing mostly about campaign finance reform. But he won't be lonely this time. I've learned that a handful of GOP senators are likely to serve as a McCain kitchen cabinet. They're independent-minded Republicans who sometimes balk at the party line--moderates like Susan Collins of Maine (the leader of the Senate's Katrina investigation), John Sununu of New Hampshire (who fought to amend portions of the Patriot Act), and Mississippi's Trent Lott (the former Senate leader who publicly called for White House staff changes). This time around, McCain's "Straight Talk Express" is going to need a few more seats.
The bus, however, doesn't always take a direct route. Consider the immigration debate: McCain's alliance with Kennedy on a bill that would allow legalizing immigrants is viewed warily by conservatives he'd like to attract. Some of them don't even like the president's plan, which provides for a temporary guest worker program under which immigrants would eventually have to return home. On this issue, McCain--the Arizonan--is willing to take on his party's base. "I've got to do what's right," he told me. "Illegal immigration is destroying my state, and we have huge problems associated with it. I owe it to my constituents to act on this issue even if it may cause me damage politically."
"Sore losers." But it may not. In fact, if Republicans follow McCain's lead on this issue, they might actually have a shot at winning in 2008. At a closed-door meeting of Senate Republicans last week, Florida's Mel Martinez warned his colleagues that Hispanic voters were angry and said his party could take the fall. Which would be a pity, given that in 2004, President Bush more than doubled the party's 1996 Hispanic vote, to 44 percent. As one senior Senate Republican told me, "The party that figures out immigration will win the presidential election." McCain understands the issue in a way few others do: Twenty-eight percent of Arizona's population is Hispanic.
Then there's McCain on congressional corruption. Jack Abramoff's congressional bribery scandal--and his shady dealings with Indian tribes, which McCain has investigated--have been a gift. McCain may lose his fight for real lobbying reform, but that's OK: He'll continue it on the campaign trail. Talk about ending congressional pork always works with fiscal conservatives. As for the war on terrorism, McCain's credentials as an ex-Vietnam POW and as a strong Bush ally on Iraq will play nicely in the GOP primaries.
And what about the party's evangelical right flank? In May, McCain will speak at Liberty University, the school run by the Rev. Jerry Falwell, whom McCain denounced as one of America's "agents of intolerance" in 2000. McCain says that "I put that behind me a long time ago." Besides, he adds, "Americans don't like sore losers."
Losing isn't what McCain has in mind.
This story appears in the April 10, 2006 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.