Don't get fooled by techno-hype
It is possible to predict the next big thing?
Humans tend to extrapolate about the future: Today we have televisions, so tomorrow we will have 3-D televisions. Today we have cars; tomorrow we'll have rocket cars. Today we have weather predictions; tomorrow we'll have weather control. Today we have telephones; tomorrow we'll have videophones. That sort of thing.
So the inventor of one cool thing adds a new twist?
We look to IBM to have the next computer innovation. But if you look at the history of technology, the maker of the vacuum tube didn't make the semiconductor. The carriage makers should have made the first automobiles, but they didn't. Today General Motors is not the leader in hybrid cars, despite being the grand old man of American carmakers. It has been said that a scientist has only one good idea in him, because once he has jumped over to the new paradigm, he is part of the new status quo.
Some technologies, like the Internet, seem to have changed almost everything.
We were told in the 1960s that space travel changes everything. In the 1970s, we were told that nuclear power changes everything. Now, we are told that the Internet changes everything. If you look at the most important things that the Internet has given us—E-mail, E-commerce, easy research tools—they are amazing tools. But before E-mail, we had the phone. Before E-commerce, we had mail-order catalogs, which were very revolutionary. If you want a real innovation, the development of catalogs in the 1870s was a big deal. The most important inventions are not always new, and the new ones are not always that important.
Any tips on dealing with new technologies?
•Anticipate the hype, and keep things in perspective by knowing why you are buying.
•Remember that most predictions are wrong and most new products fail.
•Relax, especially older people who hear they need to have new things to keep up. They don't.
•Take charge by getting involved in the debate. I'd like to see people speaking about new government technology policy. If your school decides to spend $1 million on new computers, what are they not spending $1 million on? Music or art classes?
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